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philipl

Rovers and Covid

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Just now, philipl said:

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Only Rotherham and Wigan had smaller matchday revenue than Rovers.

Only Sheffield United, Millwall, Rotherham, Preston and Wigan had smaller commercial income- actually that is pretty good being ahead of Sheffield United and Preston.

As a % of our wage bill I meant. These figures are meaningless without that context. 

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It’s a very good thread and clearly there is a mistaken perception that our fans are somehow different to others in being quick to criticise. 
 

Ignoring the last paragraph, I agree that Rovers may actually benefit from reduced match income but that assumes that Venkys are going to make up the difference. A dangerous assumption. They will have financial pressures like everyone else.

To say that the team will somehow not be as impacted by support from the stands as the bigger clubs is contrary to what TM has just said. The lack of fans “sucking the ball in” surely impacts all clubs. 

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2 hours ago, philipl said:

 

- in fact not having the crowds in at Ewood may benefit Rovers. The Ewood home crowd is amongst the most aggressively critical of home players anywhere. The fog horn know nowts berating their pet hate are to be heard all round the pitch at Ewood- be honest. Players are professionals but they are also young lads who hear those choice invectives. Not having a home crowd will probably positively help a good proportion of the Rovers team and backroom staff.

Fair enough about everything financial etc, but this paragraph isn’t true at all sorry. The only criticism of a player at Ewood in recent years that I’d regard as aggressive or ‘unfair’ was Keith Andrews v Spurs in 2011 - if there’s been anyone else singled out there’s been a valid reason for it (Danny Murphy v Peterborough).

You’re talking about the same crowd that somehow didn’t give Coyle any stick at Ewood until February of that season, and Bradley Orr didn’t receive anything either after sticking up for the most hated individual in the club’s history minutes after our relegation. Imagine that at a club with an actual aggressive crowd (you know a lot about Italian football if I recall - imagine the same scenario over there, crikey). Kean would have been run out of town a lot earlier too. 

Unfortunately Ewood has been pretty dead for a while and a few fellas shouting ‘bloody hell Brereton’ or groaning when Jason Lowe played another backwards pass doesn’t count as aggressively critical. 

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2 hours ago, philipl said:

The 20/21 season is going to be dominated by the pandemic whether we like it or not.

There are indications that the pandemic has wiped out home advantage. Results if anything are now favouring away teams and analysis of refereeing decisions are showing that the slight bias that did exist to the home side has evaporated. Would Martial have seen red in front of 75,000 at OT yesterday? It was a crazy sending off but those sorts of decisions simply don't go against the Mancs at home normally.

I am going to stir things a bit but for all the horrors of coronavirus, I think Rovers could benefit disproportionately.

Going back in time, the polio epidemic in Blackburn in 1965 undoubtedly resulted in a really good Rovers team dropping out of old Division 1 like a stone. Could a pandemic have a reverse effect now?

- financially Rovers have the Venky's blanket. The danger of Rovers following Blackpool, Bolton, Wigan, Bury, Stockport, Macclesfield, Chester into football hell doesn't exist from what we can see or know.

- that is very different from saying Venky's will (or even can- FFP isn't suspended) spend this season to drive promotion but which clubs in the Championship have spent big this summer to buy a ticket to the Premier League?

- conversely, Rovers with their tiny matchday income are far less affected financially by having no crowds than almost any other club in the Championship. Only a few clubs have smaller crowds but their commercial income and matchday prices are typically as high or higher than Rovers. Blackburn is a seriously economically disadvantaged area.

- Rovers are going to benefit more than most not having to play in front of hostile away crowds. With the best will in the world and I have been to Ewood in the Championship era and "hostile" is not an adjective you can apply to Ewood as an away day experience.

- in fact not having the crowds in at Ewood may benefit Rovers. The Ewood home crowd is amongst the most aggressively critical of home players anywhere. The fog horn know nowts berating their pet hate are to be heard all round the pitch at Ewood- be honest. Players are professionals but they are also young lads who hear those choice invectives. Not having a home crowd will probably positively help a good proportion of the Rovers team and backroom staff.

I agree with much of what you say and the general point of how having no crowds in grounds could actually help us.

I disagree that we are 'far less affected financially by having no crowds than almost every other club in the Championship'. Obviously lost income from 10,000 fans at Ewood is going to be less than that at Sheffield Wednesday, Derby, Forest or Norwich with their 20,000+ a week crowds. But elsewhere I can't see that much difference. Waggott will be probably more concerned by the losses of Leeds and Aston Villa from the division and not being able to give them a third of Ewood.

"Only a few clubs have smaller crowds but their commercial income and matchday prices are as high or higher than Rovers" - I don't think that is correct. I look at clubs like Luton, Wycombe, Brentford, QPR, Millwall, Reading, Swansea, Preston, Rotherham, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Middlesbrough and I ask myself what sort of numbers those clubs would normally get through the turnstiles.

I don't believe there a single reason why Rovers should be getting less through the gates than any of those clubs, or why our commercial income should be less. None of those have the ability to hand over unlimited away tickets or have the excellent facilities that Ewood possesses. If any of those clubs are raking in more, despite grossly inferior statures as clubs, far less seasons of Premier League history to fall back on and far inferior facilities then that is more a damning indictment on those running Rovers than a sign of where we are as a club.

"Blackburn is a seriously ecomonically disadvantaged area" - I'm not sure if it is disadvantaged or if so why in comparison to places like Middlesbrough, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Preston, Stoke, South Wales. But even if it is, and I've made this point a million times before, Blackburn Rovers as a club does not correspond with the boundaries of Blackburn. We have South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Rossendale, Hyndburn and wider Lancashire all on the doorstep and I'd go as far and suggest a majority of regular home fans live in those areas rather than Blackburn itself. In some respects those areas are absolutely booming at the moment and some are quite affluent.

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54 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

As a % of our wage bill I meant. These figures are meaningless without that context. 

image.thumb.png.4f80d4f9c0d4d822cac7ec6e522234b1.png

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Just now, philipl said:

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Nearly half of those teams aren't in the Championship anymore...and all it shows anyway is that we are middling when it comes to the financial effect of no crowds.

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If we look at clubs we could be competing with for a promotion slot, Norwich and Bristol City had 2.5 times the level of commercial and match day income of Rovers

Most of our near rivals had at least 50% more match day and commercial revenue. 

Given football clubs are budgeting down to their last penny, those are significantly bigger hits from coronavirus than Rovers are taking.

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2 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Nearly half of those teams aren't in the Championship anymore...and all it shows anyway is that we are middling when it comes to the financial effect of no crowds.

It is 2018/19 and does not show anything in relation to crowd income.

You are looking at the wrong chart for crowd impact.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, philipl said:

It is 2018/19 and does not show anything in relation to crowd income.

You are looking at the wrong chart for crowd impact.

Yeah, I'm aware how to read a chart thanks. That chart is revenue/expenditure so relates to 'no crowd' impact. 

Your assertion that Rovers will be 'far less affected' by having no fans in the ground than other clubs is not borne out by any evidence you've produced. 

It's the % of total revenue made up of matchday income that counts, not the amount of matchday income in £m.

For example, QPR, Bristol C and Brum will be less affected by loss of matchday income than us because it makes up a smaller % of their income. That can be applied to all the clubs with parachute payments too. So the premise of your argument is wrong. 

This isn't meant to come across as salty, just joining in the discussion👍

image.thumb.png.64c9b1156d4de389574d975e6d3f8c07.png

Edited by Hoochie Bloochie Mama

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4 hours ago, philipl said:

image.thumb.png.64c9b1156d4de389574d975e6d3f8c07.png

 

Only Rotherham and Wigan had smaller matchday revenue than Rovers.

Only Sheffield United, Millwall, Rotherham, Preston and Wigan had smaller commercial income- actually that is pretty good being ahead of Sheffield United and Preston.

So we have a lower matchday revenue than Preston, Millwall, Reading - something seriously wrong down at Ewood if that is correct. Mismanagement of the highest order.

Why is it pretty good being ahead of Preston and Sheffield United? As a club we are far ahead of Preston in stature and size and probably about the same as Sheffield United.

Either way I'd like to know why, what, how, when outfits like Wycombe, Reading, Luton, Brentford, QPR, Millwall, Preston, Rotherham, Barnsley, Huddersfield, Middlesbrough got themselves into a higher bracket than us on revenues, attendances etc.

 

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20 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

It's the same, probably because we get similar crowds

And that's good enough or acceptable?

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Just now, JHRover said:

And that's good enough or acceptable?

Which bit? That we have similar crowds or that we get the same match day income? One follows on from the other. 

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Surely EFL should issue a statement that FFP no longer applies in the short term at least.

Despite what's happened in the past 10 years, at least our owners haven't upped sticks and left The Rovers in the mire. If Waggott and co. had handled things totally differently, had shown empathy and understanding of supporters views, I'm certain that our supporters would have had a totally different view and reacted in a much more positive way.

There's a right way and a wrong way to deal with us as supporters, for what ever reason, whoever has been in charge at Rovers over the past 10 years, they have always managed to piss their lifeblood off.

I largely agree with the OP and its' sentiments but as others have said, disagree with any semblance of criticism of us as supporters. Had this situation been handled totally differently, I'm certain that there would have been a similar amount of season tickets purchased as in previous seasons.

Waggott, get yer bloody coat!

 

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As FFP currently stands, Rovers will automatically go into default because it looks at the ration between club's own generated income and the owners' support.

But because other clubs had larger fan-based revenues, they could fall into FFP trouble quicker than us.

The key to handling this sort of issue is not to be the first into trouble and not to have the biggest default numbers when we get into FFP difficulty.

If we break FFP on our own, we can be sure to be clobbered. 

But if we are part of a systemic wave, then we are far likelier to avoid trouble.

In the final analysis, because of Covid, the FA and League are totally dependent on club owners stepping forward and injecting the necessary cash. Then FFP punishes saviour owners by deducting points and imposing relegation.

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11 minutes ago, philipl said:

As FFP currently stands, Rovers will automatically go into default because it looks at the ration between club's own generated income and the owners' support.

But because other clubs had larger fan-based revenues, they could fall into FFP trouble quicker than us.

The key to handling this sort of issue is not to be the first into trouble and not to have the biggest default numbers when we get into FFP difficulty.

If we break FFP on our own, we can be sure to be clobbered. 

But if we are part of a systemic wave, then we are far likelier to avoid trouble.

In the final analysis, because of Covid, the FA and League are totally dependent on club owners stepping forward and injecting the necessary cash. Then FFP punishes saviour owners by deducting points and imposing relegation.

An absolutely ridiculous scenario but the EFL being themselves..........

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  • Can’t believe how hard some posters are working to find negativity....

We’ve had a good start, signed some good players, are playing our young lads, winning and entertaining. Yet you have some hammering this thread with tedious chat about Chris Houghton being better than Mowbray, every good player signed either fell into our lap or wasn’t actually signed by the manager but every signing with a question mark is hung around the managers neck.

Fuck me lads. I don’t think we’ve had an opportunity to be positive like this since those lot took over and sacked big Sam. Can we not just enjoy it for while? 🙈🤣🤣🤣

 

I will fully take on board what arbitro has said about refereeing games (I was always under the impression refs could not officiate at their local clubs) but I would say that for the more sensitive/insecure footballers, not having crowds in could well be helping them..

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Astonishing OP.

The bit I like best was the fact that there is absolutely no danger to the future of the club under Venkys.

That is quite the volte-face right there from someone who previously fought tooth and nail against them. I suppose it has taken 10 years though. (Wow we are all getting old!) 

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2 hours ago, Stuart said:

Astonishing OP.

The bit I like best was the fact that there is absolutely no danger to the future of the club under Venkys.

That is quite the volte-face right there from someone who previously fought tooth and nail against them. I suppose it has taken 10 years though. (Wow we are all getting old!) 

You have to look at the world as it is.

2010-2018 they were beyond horrendous.

2018-date, if you were to write a manual for what the perfect owners should do at a L1/Championship club, you would be hard pressed not to conclude the Raos are doing anything other than being model owners.

Now in no way forgives or forgets the past.

But now is now and we are very fortunate to have the reality that Rovers' biggest financial worry is we are banging our heads against FFP limits very hard indeed.

 

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Posted (edited)

Is the club run in a ‘model way’, Phil?

Edited by Mattyblue

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6 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

Is the club run in a ‘model way’, Phil?

Do you want owners who interfere in every detail or do you want them to select professionals, agree a long term strategic direction, inject money right to the limit allowed under FFP and let them get on with it?

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4 minutes ago, philipl said:

Do you want owners who interfere in every detail or do you want them to select professionals, agree a long term strategic direction, inject money right to the limit allowed under FFP and let them get on with it?

Who are the professionals and what is the long-term strategic direction? 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, arbitro said:

Who are the professionals and what is the long-term strategic direction? 

The Messageboard was up in arms when the club announced two years ago that it was going to build steadily in the Championship and would not expect to be challenging for promotion until 20/21.

For good or for ill very few football clubs think in those sorts of multi season plans.

Equally, they might not be any good but Mowbray and Waggott are seasoned football professionals. They were recruited as such, given their parameters and told to do the job without interference.

Again, for good or for ill the Rovers ownership has honoured its commitment and left the professional management it recruited to do the jobs they were recruited for.

Very few clubs don't have interfering owners who also write the cheques when they are needed.

Edited by philipl

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