Dolan is our second top goalscorer and assister, I think. Imagine he's there or thereabouts most seasons, as his stats are quite consistent. Certainly different to if we were losing someone like Hedges with 1 goal and 2 assists.

When you look at Preston's overall form, and Bristol City's home form, then it does seem unlikely that Preston will get anything. Stranger things have happened though. The main positive from tonight's result is that a draw in their game would now be enough for us to leapfrog them, in the event we beat Sheff Utd (we'll probably draw or lose, but still, hope burns eternal). Bristol City last dropped points at home to Hull on 8th March. Preston last picked up a point on the road at Sunderland on 11th March. Both 1-1 draws.

Tbf Ipswich spent £150m to come 18th and get relegated with four games to spare. Makes me fear what would happen if by some miracle we actually got promoted under Venky's. How much would they realistically spend? Would it even be a third of what Ipswich have? Could genuinely see us taking Derby's crown as worst ever PL team. Meanwhile at best they'd use the PL & parachute payments to reset us to a fairly even keel before going back to screwing us over again for another decade. Positive thinking obviously not my strong suit tonight 🤣

We have to win, but that was the case regardless of tonight's result. I think if Millwall win we need both Coventry and Bristol City to drop points to get into the playoffs. If Millwall draw or lose then we only need one of Coventry or Bristol City to drop points.

I just can't be bothered typing out Bristol City every time tbh, and assume people would know I don't mean Bristol Rovers 😅

Yep, not just a defeat but an absolute hammering. After also getting beaten 3-1 by Luton in their last match, it's got to be a severe dent in confidence for Bristol. Granted Preston are also shit and will be low on confidence, but increases the chances of a draw when they play each other at least. From a GD perspective all we needed was 3-0, the extra goal doesn't really mean anything other than further damaging Bristol's confidence going into the final day.

Looking like a great result for both us and Boro especially.

Leeds have been frighteningly dominant. 17 shots to 0. If they score once more then if Bristol City draw against Preston and we win by any scoreline against Sheff Utd, we'd go above Bristol.

One of those players who rarely dips below 7/10 performance-wise. An absolute steal on a free transfer. That kind of consistency is absolutely vital in the centre of the park. You can get away with a striker or a winger having a very poor game, but if it happens in the middle of the pitch then it's going to cause some major problems. He and Travis work very well together, and it gives the team a solid foundation to work from. We need far better backup than the likes of Buckley or JRC, though. We can't afford to have our form collapse every time Tronstad is unavailable or unfit.

Even if they go down, the turnaround there has been remarkable. From memory they were on something like 29 points when he arrived and in torrid form. I remember going over their team, form and fixtures and posting that the chances of him getting them out of that mess are really low. If they stay up then, with sensible investment, Eustace could easily have them challenging for playoffs next season. If they go down then a lot will depend on how their club deals with that in the summer - as a manager, Eustace is more than capable of getting them back up at the first time of asking. With that said, even if they go down, one imagines Eustace will have seen his reputation rise in the eyes of many Championship decision-makers. To take us into playoff contention and then pull Derby out of their tailspin to the point where their destiny is in their own hands is impressive. Evidence suggests it takes a few games for his methods to kick in, but once they do then things start going in the right direction quickly. One would wonder if there might be a Championship club thinking 'this guy might be our ticket into unlikely playoff contention on a low budget, let's try and convince him to come here'.

Well, now I really hope my calculations were correct 😆

I had a gander on their forums and was honestly a bit baffled by how negative the general sentiment was. It wasn't that long ago they were struggling in League 1, and now the expectation genuinely seems to be that they should have been pushing for automatics, despite not having the wage bill or transfer expenditure to make that a likely possibility. I'm just thinking, lads, try supporting Rovers for a few seasons. Try enduring season after season of catastrophic losses of form which don't just put us in negative momentum, but totally bomb us out of playoff contention despite often being in extremely strong positions. Try dealing with seeing the club sabotage itself in January year after year, whilst watching the playing squad get systematically weakened by cost-cutting despite being in a strong FFP position and supposedly having wealthy owners. They've been in the playoff positions or higher basically all season. Excluding the parachute clubs they've won more games than anyone else. Better GD than everyone else. Conceded less than everyone else. I get that it's disappointing to go through a bad spell where you lose a few matches on the spin, but jeez, you're already in the playoffs. Even if you'd won all four of those you'd still be 4th. You can't drop down any further than that. It's hard to understand how a poor run of form which ultimately doesn't change anything has turned into a massive FUCK YOU to the manager and players for sections of their fanbase. I also don't see how it helps to fracture the relationship between the manager, players and fans before the playoffs. This is why it makes me laugh when people try to paint Ewood as being 'a jury' and our fans being overly negative. Try reading literally any other fan forum. Lose a few matches and most fanbases are the same if not far worse. In fact, Ewood is probably very low down the list of grounds where fans turn on the team. Even during some of our most dire runs you generally get apathy rather than outright anger.

Interestingly despite being sat comfortably in 4th, there's some serious friction at Sunderland. Fans booing and having a go at the players after today's 2-0 defeat to Oxford. Apparently an exchange between the players and fans post-match. Granted their recent form is horrendous (four losses on the spin, five without a win), but still surprising to see such a vocal level of discontent and disharmony with the playoffs on the horizon. Doesn't seem to bode well for them.

I probably could have saved myself some time by just asking ChatGPT to break down the outcomes from the start 😂 it can access the internet now, so in theory should be able to do that. I might actually try it and see what it comes up with. Edit: No, it's telling me I'd have to feed it with all the relevent information first. I could probably put the league table and fixtures into a text file and feed it that, but it can't go and search for the info itself.

I think it should say min rather than max, as at the very least we'd finish 9th. Also the line about us drawing should say 'Any' for Coventry as well, as we'd miss out no matter what their result.

JRC has natural talent, but I think the repeated injuries have done a number on him as a player. It's a shame. This season has been a really bad one for him. Buckley, another one with natural talent, but he's some way short of his potential and unlikely to significantly improve at this point. I think he's a reasonable backup player, as he does occasionally bring something unique out of his locker, but it seems unlikely that he'll ever become a first team player in a team looking to challenge for the top six. With that said, if he had realised his potential we would probably have sold him by now for something like £7m to plug a hole in the finances, so... whatever,

It'll be interesting to see what Wrexham's level of expenditure is next season. It isn't too difficult to use financial muscle to bulldoze through the lower leagues, but the Championship is a different playing field financially - particularly with the parachute payment clubs to contend with. It's also a pretty big step up in terms of quality - more so when you're coming from a position of being in the lower leagues, rather than having yo-yo'd between the Championship and L1. If they spend sensibly they should be able to achieve a mid-table position - Portsmouth and Oxford have done alright, after all - but to get beyond that point will likely take time, and a careful eye on FFP limits.

I think we can file it under the more unlikely scenarios, based on Preston's form, but you never know. There are an amazing amount of scenarios that could play out at the top and bottom of the table, regardless - even more so if Bristol lose to Leeds.

Just to note, we will have to beat Sheff Utd to get into the playoffs. A draw isn't enough, as it would require Coventry to lose, and as they are playing Boro, that would mean Boro would go ahead of us by one point.

Maybe, but they haven't yet. Not that I think it matters much - Preston are absolutely awful and in a catastrophic tailspin. Even if Bristol have nothing to play for on the final day and rest players, there's every chance Preston would lose. They're that bad at the moment. Of all the teams at the bottom, they should be the most worried. Hull can definitely get a result at Portsmouth. Luton just beat Coventry, so no reason to think they can't take something from WBA as well. Preston will be praying that Bristol beat Leeds on Monday, and then field a reserve team against them. Otherwise they really could be staring down the barrel.

If they beat Leeds on Monday then Bristol City can't be caught by Millwall, Rovers or Boro, so could well rest players against Preston. If they draw or lose against Leeds, then yes, they still have to finish the job.

If we fail to get into the playoffs then not really. His first 7 games in charge (almost all against teams far below us in the table) will have destroyed what was otherwise a very attainable chance to get into the playoffs. Just one win against any of those teams would see us in 5th right now and with our fate in our own hands. Instead we have to rely on other teams, as usual. Those performances weren't just bad, they were absolutely appalling, and as the man at the helm he has to take some responsibility for that. If we get into the playoffs, fair enough, he's proven people wrong. Otherwise it's a case of too little too late, unfortunately. We need a manager and a team who can play when the pressure is on, not just when they are the underdogs.

Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with the largest run of recent momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games. Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them. If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though. Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD). Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them. Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely). A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them. Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out. So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th. As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs. If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them. Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw). For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible. I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.

Basically all teams between 5th and 17th are much of a muchness, really. I don't think there's any significant difference in quality between any of them, just a case of momentum and injuries determining where the points have fallen this season. Very, very rare for a team to be able to finish 6th on less than 70 points (as far as I can tell it's only happened once in the last 10 years, when Sunderland scraped in with 69 points a couple of seasons back). The average for a team finishing 5th is to be in the mid-to-high 70s. Funnily enough, the only case where it's been less than that average was the same season Sunderland got 6th with 69 points - Coventry finished 5th with 70 points. So yeah, based on averages the teams getting 5th and 6th this year are the best of a weak bunch, much like in the 22/23 season.

Congrats to Oxford and Portsmouth for staying up. A great achievement for both of them. Plymouth would be in with a shout of staying up as well if not for their wretched goal difference. Barring an insane goal swing on the final day, they are down along with Cardiff. That leaves one relegation place open, which could go to any of Stoke, Derby, Preston, Luton or Hull. Stoke and Derby play each other on the final day - the winner survives, the loser would be looking nervously at the Hull, Preston and Luton results. A draw would be enough for Stoke, but leave Derby in the same position of awaiting the Hull, Preston and Luton results. The only difference would be that if Derby lose then Luton and Preston could draw and go above them. if they draw then Luton and Preston would need to win to go above them. A draw would probably be enough for them to survive, but not guaranteed. To be in a position where it's in their own hands is still one hell of an achievement regardless, considering where they were when Eustace jumped ship. Preston play Bristol City away - no dead rubber as Bristol City will need to win to be sure of a playoff position (unless they beat Leeds tomorrow, in which case, it will be a meaningless match for them). A draw would leave Preston at the mercy of the Stoke, Derby, Luton and Hull results, whilst a loss would leave them needing Hull and Luton to lose. Luton play WBA away. It's a nothing game for WBA, as they can't make the playoffs now. Pretty much the same situation for Luton as Preston if they draw. If they lose then they'll need Hull to lose as well, as Hull have superior goal difference and could leapfrog Luton with a draw. Finally, Hull play Portsmouth away from home. A nothing game for Portsmouth as they are already safe. A draw could see Hull leapfrog Derby, Preston or Luton depending on how those results go. A win would see them safe as one of Derby and Stoke will have to drop points. A loss means they go down. Stoke are the only one of these teams who play at home, but with the added pressure of it being against another team fighting for survival. Form wise in the last 6 games... Stoke: 8/18 (but lost their last two matches) Derby: 8/18 (won their last two matches) Preston: 2/18 (lost their last four matches, in total collapse) Luton: 11/18 (won their last three matches, definitely the team in form, only lost 1 in their last 6, against us) Hull: 7/18 (very erratic form) Based on the above I would say there is a good chance that Preston could go down. Luton meanwhile are going into the final day with a lot of momentum. It's going to be a fascinating final day at the bottom.