bluebruce

Stonewall foul. The contact happened just outside the box.

Wait, no massive bloke on either wing? Or is it Kaminski inside forward?

They don't even need to maximise. Rotherham would only need 2 wins from their 4 games in hand to be 5 points behind us. That and a Coventry win from their game in hand and we would indeed be 5 points (and our GD) from the drop zone as you say. With presumably the worst form in the league, this is all getting very worrying...but Tony doesn't seem to think it's a possibility. Sleep-walking into disaster potentially.

Just ruminating on TM's comment that we will win enough games in the last seven to not be worried about relegation. I'm sure he didn't expect to only win 1 game in the last 13 before this run, so it's hardly a reassuring prediction.

I want whatever works out best overall for the club. And the prospect of TM in charge for next season makes me consider relegation a very real possibility. Maybe even this season if we're not careful. That's why I say I'm not sure I want us to win. If we do I'll celebrate it as always of course, that's what the game's about.

I have a funny feeling that, despite all logic, we will win this one. Just feels like it's due. I'm not sure I want us to - despite what many say, I feel sure there is a theoretical point at which he will be sacked, and I don't think we are all that far off it. Lose the next three and I'd be surprised if even Venkys keep him in situ. But if we win today I suspect it will take the pressure off his back for another relegation-threatening 5 games or so of dire results. Feels like when he normally pulls a point or three out the bag. In theory though we should get tonked the way we are playing.

On the topic of unanswered questions, you didn't reply to one of mine. Ok, the owners have backed TM financially, but if we have a proper ownership and aren't badly managed as a club, why is TM still in charge? The buck stops with the manager, but if the owners won't replace a manager who is severely underperforming and the majority of fans want gone, the buck stops with them instead.

I didn't realise talking about Tony Mowbray had that effect on you.

Interesting notion- Tony Mowbray wouldn't have bought Tony Mowbray.

And you know if a player is doing well by watching them. Yet data on players has become a very prominent tool. In most lines of work, a management hire will usually have to justify themselves at least partially in numbers. Truth is almost anything in existence can be explained in numbers. It's just a case of establishing how. Stats like possession can be used to make Mowbray look good - but only if you ignore all the other stats that make him look bad, like this terrible run we are on, an almost inevitable decline in league position and points this year, and the stats I posted in the other thread that show his strategy of controlling possession backfires. Empirically.

Maybe win percentage relative to win percentage that club had in the year before a manager took over. Like a win percentage improvement stat. Although I'd say points are more important than wins. Difficult with promoted sides, but for those you could take an aggregate of the three promoted teams from the season before (or a 5, 10 year aggregate if you liked) and create an 'expected points' metric to compare it to, sort of in the vein of xg. Then see how the manager performs for points compared to that. Depending how you view these things you could also base it on teams who have finished 1st, 2nd or won the playoffs, to tailor it more, but I think I saw a stat years ago that the team winning the playoffs actually tend to do better than the team finishing 2nd, so that might indicate it isn't too useful. It might be possible to add in other factors too, like net transfer spend relative to performance, or altering the expected points metric, with a bit of tinkering. Tricky though, especially since so many fees are undisclosed which probably makes it a non starter. Maybe player number turnover though, which could indicate how a manager deals with a rebuild. On the whole I agree managers are harder to run data on, but there are things that can be done. Comparing league finish to that predicted by the bookies could be another, although that has an element of subjectivity.

Mowbray's biggest problem, above all else, is that he simply has no fucking clue where players should really be used on the pitch.

Do you seriously need to ask that? Do you think Mowbray would still be in charge at any other club of our stature in this league?

Lots of people have been coaches at lots of clubs. Why Beattie and Duff?

It looks like it, but hard to tell. They just tend to grow a lot quieter after a defeat, and quieter still the more of them there have been. But come a win they seem to feel vindicated and spring back into life. Of course, the same can be said for those who want him gone. It can feel churlish, or open you up to a lot of nonsense, to publicly state you want the manager gone after a decent result or two. Yet when we don't continue to state it at those moments, the happy clappers come out with 'where are the Mowbray Out brigade now?' It's all very peurile. People should be able to just have a mature discussion about it, but it isn't the way of the world.

Ainsworth sounded more upset by our losing today than Mowbray did! "Blackburn have lost and I don't like that, ever. It is the first result I look for" I think he said a bit more than that about it too, but I can't seem to find it now.

Five games later, I'm updating these stats: When we have 51% possession or more: Games: 31 Points: 31 Points per Game (PPG): 1 When we have 50% or less (note: all were 49 or less): Games: 8 Points: 15 PPG: 1.875 Both have come down a bit tbf, but the under 50% has come down because of a single game, a draw away to the best side in the league, one the manager was still dining out on today. When we have 50-59% possession Games: 12 Points: 12 PPG: 1 60-69% possession Games: 14 Points: 11 PPG: 0.786 70% upwards Games: 5 Points: 8 PPG: 1.6

Most important recruitment for the new season? That's obvious. New manager.

The problem with that theory is Waggott is already on record saying it won't make us any money and we may actually need to borrow more from the owners for it.

Whilst I don't think he is the best candidate, I'd swap the two of them right now without a second thought.

I feel like that entire performance was banter.

I'll call it now, if we keep Mowbray through all of next season, we are going to get relegated. The last two times I predicted we would get relegated were the last two times we got relegated.

Someone on FB posted half the players were laughing at the end of the game. I turned it off as soon as the whistle went, so can anybody confirm or deny this? Outrageous if true - unless they've been told TM will get the sack for a loss of course.

If there are any excuses today, ANY excuses at all, I'm going to cross the border into calling him a cunt. Most managers I can think of who we have had would have been holding their hands up and calling this run completely unacceptable several games ago. Instead we have had a litany of excuses and zero accountability from him. Starting to think a diarrhoea shit has more integrity.

He doesn't need to stoop, he's already sat down. Maybe next game he will actually lie down and bring a pillow?