superniko

Here are the 81 different combination of results between the the playoff contenders: 21% chance of Rovers finishing in the Top 6 This becomes 66% chance IF Rovers are confirmed as a Win (i.e. 66% chance that 2+ of Millwall, Coventry, Bristol City fail to win)

Will confirm tomorrow, but should just be the same as above as that assumed a Leeds win tonight, but now we’ve confirmed that no GD swing needed. Essentially 1) Rovers win 2) Any 2, or all 3, of Bristol City, Coventry and Millwall fail to win (draw or lose)

Yep, those players will have a bigger bonus for winning the league vs 2nd. No doubt at all that Burnley will be going full strength to win the league, get 100 points, get bigger pay days and have a better CV. Millwall are 5/1 to win that match currently, Burnley 4/6 - which reflects correctly.

We'll have a slightly clearer picture after tonight. I've already shared the 20 combinations of results that end up with Rovers in the Top 6, but thought it's worth mentioning, that if Rovers do win, then there is a 67% chance of the Top 6. So we're more likely than not, to get the other results in our favour, just that we have to do the job ourselves. Just shows, if we just had a draw vs Cardiff at home then this would be in our own hands - although I think with this team I'd rather be chasing from the outside than having it in our own hands.

Annoyingly they were guaranteed 3rd place a week earlier than we’d have wanted. They rested a lot of players on Friday night so I think it’s more likely they go a bit stronger against us.

Are Thursday / Monday the confirmed playoff dates? What a shambles football has become not having 1 of the legs on a weekend

About 30/1 I think

(below is providing Leeds beat Bristol City) There are 81 permutations of various results in the 4 matches (Bristol City, Coventry, Millwall, Rovers). 20 of those 81 sees Rovers make the Top 6.

Providing Leeds beat Bristol City on Monday. It looks like there will be 20 permutations which get Rovers into the Playoffs: 4 of these would require a better GD than Bristol City (4 goal swing needed) Amazingly, there is around 19% chance of it happening or around 4/1 in betting money. Most likely successful Rovers permutation is: Rovers Win...Bristol City Win...Coventry Lose...Millwall Lose, which would also be a stinker for PNE so that's nice 🙂 If Bristol City draw with Leeds this drops to 15% chance, and if they beat Leeds it drops to 13%

Ideally by 3 goals - as that’ll mean a 1 goal Rovers win puts them above Bristol City if they draw with PNE

Coventry v Boro - if we draw then one of those two finishes above us

I’ll stay outside 😄

We’re in a fight for the playoff spots and I turned the tv off at HT to get some work done in the garden - that’s how utterly boring that first half was. Pathetic, when it matters most - it just sums up Rovers.

Dire so far, certainly don’t look like a team with a sniff of the top 6

It makes no difference to us directly. But it means Boro can lose today to Norwich and still have a chance of 6th if they beat Coventry i.e. they have something still to play for - which is better for us as we can’t have Coventry winning that final match. (not that I see Boro losing today)

That was Jones - Bell was subbed a while back.

Comedy goal, and we love it

Coventry down to 10 already - ref couldn’t wait to give that 😂

Should be as much of a gimme as you get in this league. Playing against a very average side who only have their eyes on their upcoming Dubai holidays. Rovers are 2nd shortest price of all fixtures today at 1.75 (8/11 ish) - only Boro are more fancied to win at 1.65 (4/6 ish). No doubt we’ll get served up the soft lads version and we’ll slump to a depressing 2-0 defeat.

Thanks! For me, I'm not overly worried about the team 'short-term' i.e. this summer. It's more 2026 with Travis, Tronstad, Brittain, Hyam all gone as that is our spine, all likely leaving for free if we don't sort it now. This is where the focus should be now (should have been months ago) Even a club as incompetent as ours should fancy their chances of improving on ACD, Dennis, Woodrow, Sanderson, Hedges, Foreshaw (6 of the 10). We'll likely get another 5 loans, which i'd be impressed if they're any worse than the 5 listed above who have offered nothing bar Beck. (Loans in this league should be instant 1st teamers if you have any sense). Beck, Dolan, Batth and Weimann given his goalscoring record will be missed, but the latter two should be easy enough to re-sign.

To save me looking it up, who are the 10 please? Hedges, Dolan, Batth, Weimann, Foreshaw...

Made me laugh just how accurate this is. I can picture it already, on here at 14:30 after Luton beat Coventry, we're all excited that a win would take us to 1 point off 6th with 1 game to play, then we go 2-0 down after 8 minutes.

Yep... A lot of depends on how this weekend goes first, but essentially we'll be cheering on the Draw most likely in that match, or a Boro win (if they don't win this weekend). If Coventry win it, then we cannot catch them.

Well, here are the permutations needed as far as I can see. Bookies suggest 25/1 shot so about 4 in 100 - can't be bothered working out my own odds, but will do so if we're still in the hunt next week.

This is what I am expecting too - we'll renew Hedges, and others who should be squad players at best, but balls it up for Brittain, Tronstad, Travis. If we could get contracts over the line, the core of this team is decent. Travis and Tronstad together are a great centre midfield pairing in this league. Brittain and Ribiero are top quality full backs in this league. We have top half centre backs in Hyam, Carter, Batth, Wharton. Ohashi has proven himself to be a quality goalscorer in this league and Dolan is comfortably a top half Championship player despite what many say on here. Our issue is and has been for a few years 1) depth - as shown again when the January injuries hit and the clowns thought the likes of Forshaw would suffice and 2) quality wingers / strikers - as shown by the number of appearances we've had to get out of Hedges this season. As always, if we just spent £10m of the Wharton + Szmodics + Raya + Phillips money (it doesn't even need to be on the level of Coventry with Gyokeres and Hamer) for a proven winger, goal scorer and centre midfield depth and played Toth instead of Pears then I'd have no doubt we'd be in the Top 6 right now.