Probability of each individual permutation below. 4.4% chance of relegation. You’re saying it’s 1/20 for Leicester to beat us (95% chance) when they’re actually about 8/13 (62% chance) But you are correct that the likelihood of relegation (4.4%) is higher than the 2 in 81 if all results were equally likely.

No because those 81 permutations all have a different % chance of occuring and are not equal (as shown in the image). e.g. the chance of all 4 teams winning is different to the chance of all 4 teams drawing

Added in the team who gets relegated each time to see the difference between Birmingham and Plymouth in particular. 2 of 81 permutations relegates Rovers 3 of 81 permutations relegates Wednesday 20 of 81 permutations relegates Plymouth 56 of 81 permutations relegates Birmingham

Somebody mentioned on another thread that there are 81 permutations of results between ourselves, Sheff Wed, Plymouth and Birmingham this weekend and only 2 of them will relegate us (LWWW, LDWW). Monday morning procrastination led me to offer the visualisation. 4.4% chance of happening, around 23/1 100% price. Nothing would be more Rovers than to drag this onto the final game of the season, and end up with the largest relegation points total since.....Rovers last time. I'm holding hope onto Hull really.

Struggling to see why they have a Seniors and U23s section on there (obviously the core of the offer is good)

We had a very short period where we had a manager who would question the status quo. Publicly call out false promises and try to hold those responsible to account. Those on the gravy train (almost everyone high up at Rovers), are obviously delighted with the current predicament of yes man with no talent, skill, CV, evidence of success, evidence of decent football, evidence of wanting to know our town, region or club churning away shit performances along as it keeps all those guys out the limelight. Of course Waggott prefers this than JDT mocking his lies about our leased coach/bus. Of course the shadow man prefers this to JDT saying budgets have been cut and he was fed lies etc. Just all topping up their pensions with no shits given to Rovers. When we beat Leeds Eustsces celebrations were straight to the box behind him (lots of managers do that in fairness). But, If anyone cared for the club they’d be to fans / players / staff not to your boss.

If (IF) we do fail against Coventry, then we’ll be cheering on Hull vs Ipswich at 8pm for various reasons: - Likely means Leicester have the league wrapped up before our match and they may rotate / not try as hard - Hull still competing with Norwich for 6th meaning they’ll be going for a result vs Plymouth and also Norwich have to get a result vs Birmingham. - Added bonus that Ipswich will still likely pip Leeds even if they do lose to Hull

Sort of feels like they’ve gone the opposite way to us in terms of manager too Ainsworth into Cifuentes vs JDT into Eustace

Whilst QPR are down there with us (albeit I think 50 points is enough regardless), I can’t help but want them to win tonight to see the Leeds collapse.

Who the fook is Fraser Read and why is some inexperienced kid holding such a role at our club. As for crowd funding our own stadium improvements…….”never refuse a cheque” Venkys Out and strip the rest of the hierarchy clean too.

Wharton out for the whole next season. So add another CB to the list of needs. So I make that a GK, LB, RB, CB, CM, Winger, ST - looks like we need to fill every single position on what I imagine will be a negative budget.

Man it's depressing going back reading the first few pages of this thread. There was some real optimism at the club that hasn't been around since Hughes' days I'd say. Wharton signed a new contract, everyone was on board with JDT, we had other youngsters like Phillips, Carter and Leonard. There's also some funny stuff like the 'gaming until 2am', 'walked out of training as someone put a hard tackle on him', 'personally threatened Broughton'. I think there was plenty of moaning about him being at the Etihad for a match one evening too when injured

I think the 'Eustace was doing really well at Birmingham' is a bit of a false narrative. I read a bit from their fans recently to see thoughts on it, and most claimed it was the fact that he was replaced with Rooney that was shocker in it all. I think it's quoted a lot that they were on the edge or in the playoffs when they fired him, but they were 2 points from 16th or something too, it was just a really condensed league table. EDIT: just to add to the above, he clearly did a decent job there, kept them up then had them looking relatively safe, just what I read from some Birmingham fans was that it might not be viewed that way if the appointment was correct rather than Rooney. Trying to claim his signings were in any way good is pretty laughable from Chaddy, but we know he's in cloud cookoo land and thinks we'll spend loads of money on top quality players like he has for every transfer window since forever.

Did you even read what you put you plonker?

We’ve just moved from 7/4 (underdogs) to 11/8 (favourites) on the back of that Coventry defeat (36% chance of winning to 42% chance). Hopefully Mercer is backing Cov so we can all breath a sigh of relief Also means there is lots for West Brom to be competing for vs Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, and hopefully also Norwich vs Birmingham on the final day

Hull have gone favourites after the Coventry team news. Good for us if Coventry lose they’re out of the race and perhaps are less motivated vs us. Also keeps Hull in the race who play Plymouth on the final day and means Norwich have something to play for vs Birmingham Does probably mean they’ll be full strength again when they play us on Saturday though

A draw on Saturday alongside WBA beating Wednesday would be enough to guarantee safety, as Wednesday and one of Hudds/Brum wouldn't surpass us on 50 points. Likewise if we draw and Huddersfield win, we're also safe, regardless of Wednesday result as neither Huddersfield or Birmingham would surpass us on 50 points Finally, a victory would also confirm safety, providing any of Wednesday and Birmingham fail to win, or Plymouth lose So essentially if we can pick up 1 point, it'll be enough if EITHER Sheffield Wednesday OR Birmingham lose (both are underdogs). The statistical chance of any of the above permutations happening is around 43% i.e. it's about 11/8 in betting terms that Rovers will be safe going into the Leicester match. Not sure if that eases anybody at all, but it's odds on that we'll be going to Leicester biting our nails.

Bolton have sold an additional 1k extra tickets vs last season in the early bird phase. Priced at £249. We continue on the journey to a closed Riverside under Swag.

It's astonishing that man gets no criticism outside of this messageboard considering it's the same shocking output every year. We are always the last out of every Lancashire club to get them on sale.

My guess would be Hedges and JRC if they could stay fit and stay at the club. Markanday and Telalovic aren't even at league 1 level.

I did factor that into my pricing of the final matches to be fair, felt I was generous to our rivals e.g. Plymouth favourites vs Hull, Wednesday favourites away at Sunderland, all things that wouldn't be the case if played on any other match-week. So the 23% if we get no more points does take all that into account. For this weekend coming up we already have prices released so that's simple. If I go more aggressive/generous for our rivals on the final weekend I still can only get it to 30% chance (that's with Wednesday, Plymouth, Birmingham all going off shorter than 11/8 favourites which is unlikely.

Out of curiosity, what do you think the ref was saying to him afterwards? It seemed a bit strange he ran over to him and they had an arm round each other. (appreciate that's a very open question)

I think looking at with our pessimistic Rovers head on we’d always think it’s more likely. Will be the same for all fans of clubs down there.

Yeah, Ince only had 21 games in charge for us, but it was obviously the correct decision to pot him.

Yeah. I've just worked out the permutations (albeit prices are subjective on the last game of the season as we don't know who has anything to play for) to show what % chance we'd get relegated if we get 1 more point to take us to 50. If we get 1 more point, it requires all the below to occur to relegate us (as Huddersfield and Rotherham will be unable to surpass us): Plymouth 2+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD (53% chance of 2 or more points) Birmingham 4+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW (24% chance of 4 or more points) Wednesday 4+ Points (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW (30% chance of 4 or more points) QPR 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (72% chance of 1 or more point) Stoke 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (79% chance of 1 or more point) All of the above happening I made 45/1 as the true price, so around 2% chance of relegation if we pick up 1 more point If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated.