England

[Hasta]

44 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

This is different to what is being suggested here.
The notion is that because we played the likes of “Switzerland, Sweden or Ukraine” in the quarters or “Denmark, Croatia or Netherlands” in the Semi we had lucky draws

The suggestion is that unless you play France, Spain, Brazil or Argentina you have had a lucky draw

But that happens in every World Cup. It happens in every FA Cup too. A premier league club likely spanked a league 2, 1 and a championship club on their way to the FA Cup final. Go back through World Cup winning brackets and you’ll likely see the winners playing a Sweden, South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Turkey etc. it is rare that you will play all Seed 1 nations - that’s why the seeding system is around.

What isn’t being told is that, in order for England to play Switzerland in the quarters, Switzerland had to beat Italy. To play Ukraine in the quarters, we had to beat Germany. Now in your example I don’t know if Walsall or Tranmere beat better quality teams on their way through. Maybe not. Although Tranmere only made a cup final in 2000 so weren’t a terrible side then either. Beside the point - whilst that route was favourable, it was also a stand out in totally avoiding a higher seeded team until the final. Nothing about Englands routes to both finals were extraordinary. It is quite normal to play the nations we played - the route Italy took to the Euro 20 final of Portugal, Spain and France is outside of the norm in modern tournaments.

My only point is you can get lucky with the draw. Tranmere and Sunderland both knocked out Premier League teams. You can’t control who you play, but things can pan out more or less favourable.

Englands ‘performances’ in the last Euros were fairly poor but they had a kind enough draw to get through to the semi finals and then actually played ok against the Dutch.

However we did get a bit lucky with the draw. There were 24 teams, seeded and split into 4 pots. In the knockout stages all three games were against teams from either pot 3 or pot 4. We got lucky being drawn against a 3rd place qualifier in the last 16  and we didn’t play any team from seeding pots 1 or 2 in a knockout game until the final. That’s the only time that has happened since the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. 
 

Edited yesterday at 14:10 by Hasta

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 hour ago, wilsdenrover said:

 

Exactly.

We deserved to win the Premier league, we were lucky Ludo had a stormer. 

And Andy Cole had a game to forget.

[Dreams of 1995]

Just now, Hasta said:

My only point is you can get lucky with the draw. Tranmere and Sunderland both knocked out Premier League teams. You can’t control who you play, but things can pan out more or less favourable.

Englands ‘performances’ in the last Euros were fairly poor but they had a lucky enough draw to get through to the semi finals and then actually played ok against the Dutch.

However we did get a bit lucky with the draw. There were 24 teams, seeded and split into 4 pots. In the knockout stages all three games were against teams from either pot 3 or pot 4. We got lucky being drawn against a 3rd place qualifier in the last 16  and we didn’t play any team from seeding pots 1 or 2 in a knockout game until the final. That’s the only time that has happened since the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. 
 

In the FA Cup each round is reverted into a lottery. In your example, if Milwall were a country, they’d have faced an Arsenal or a Man Utd in the group stage. As it is, the lottery took that fate away from them 

Within international football, you balance the odds in your favour by making yourself a top seeded nation. Once you are put into your groups everything else is then decided by the merit of your performances. Had England not won their group, we’d have been more likely to face sides who came first in their respective group, therefore more in form. Most things in international football are by merit - you come Top Seed by merit, you win your group by merit and from there on the route is planned out. If we had come 2nd we’d have played Germany and then Spain. It was the merit of our group stage performances which meant we didn’t.

By far the luckiest thing in international football is the country you qualify for. From then on in, merit of your performances are king.

And in Euro 24 pots 3 and 4 included Croatia, Italy, Holland and Switzerland who are no mugs. Switzerland especially was a banana skin - as Italy found out in the knock outs, Germany in the groups and France in the tournament before. I was fearful for that game for sure 

[Hasta]

3 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

And in Euro 24 pots 3 and 4 included Croatia, Italy, Holland and Switzerland who are no mugs.

They were in pots 3 and 4 by merit 😜

I do get your points, but I still feel like that last tournament opened up massively for England. And it’s a good job it did as we still could only draw 4 of the first 5 games in 90 minutes. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Just watching England U-21. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2nd half more Zzzzzzzzzz.  Everything that’s wrong with modern football. Too slow in possession. No tempo. Playing in front of the opposition all the game. Nobody got in up the side. Nobody wanting to take responsibility. Just sideways passing. . Too many playing for themselves in front of goal. None of those players  are knocking on the door of the first team of thst showing.

I had to turn the commentary off. If I never hear Conor Coady again it’ll be too soon !

[M_B]

7 hours ago, Hasta said:

 Millwall reached an FA Cup final in 2004 before getting battered off Man Utd in the final. Still a great achievement for a 2nd tier club.

However they didn’t face a premier league team until the final. They played:-

Walsall at home,

Telford away 

Burnley at home.

In the quarter final they got past 3rd tier Tranmere, the lowest side still in the tournament. Meanwhile the four remaining Premier League sides all drew each other.

In the semi they beat second tier Sunderland whilst Arsenal played Man Utd in the other semi.

Is anyone actually arguing here that they didn’t have luck on their side with the draw?

I don't think anyone would argue with that, in fact you've summed up the difference nicely. They were drawn out of a bag every round except the final.

Major finals groups are drawn beforehand, from there the route to the final is determined by results, nothing to do with luck whatsoever 

[roversfan99]

I dont see why that makes such a difference, specific to England. England's opposition was not something they could control, so it was luck.

And besides, both ways are determined by results.

[M_B]

2 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I dont see why that makes such a difference, specific to England. England's opposition was not something they could control, so it was luck.

And besides, both ways are determined by results.

England could have beaten a different team in the euro final, Italys route had nothing to do with England, so were England unlucky to have played Italy? 

[roversfan99]

3 minutes ago, M_B said:

England could have beaten a different team in the euro final, Italys route had nothing to do with England, so were England unlucky to have played Italy? 

Im not basing it on whether they won or lost. Im basing it on the standard of opposition. 

[M_B]

2 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Im not basing it on whether they won or lost. Im basing it on the standard of opposition. 

Yeah well, were we unlucky to have played Italy, rather than a team we would have beaten ? 

[Hasta]

7 minutes ago, M_B said:

Yeah well, were we unlucky to have played Italy, rather than a team we would have beaten ? 

I think in a major tournament, the further you get the better you expect the opposition to be.

So we were unlucky in the same way that you’d be unlucky to walk down a back alley and not find a tenner on the ground.

[M_B]

22 hours ago, Hasta said:

I think in a major tournament, the further you get the better you expect the opposition to be.

So we were unlucky in the same way that you’d be unlucky to walk down a back alley and not find a tenner on the ground.

As far as I'm concerned, we've done well at each tournament under Southgate, but just fallen short.

The whole luck thing falls apart when the exact same "logic" (I use the term loosely) is applied to losing as well as winning. 

Edited 2 hours ago by M_B

[RevidgeBlue]

36 minutes ago, M_B said:

As far as I'm concerned, we've done well at each tournament under Southgate, but just fallen short.

So by that token then, I take it you'll be praising Tuchel to high heaven if we get knocked out at the last 8 stage of the next World Cup?

[chaddyrovers]

1 hour ago, RevidgeBlue said:

So by that token then, I take it you'll be praising Tuchel to high heaven if we get knocked out at the last 8 stage of the next World Cup?

Semi Final or Winner is the bench mark not the last 8

Edited 13 minutes ago by chaddyrovers