England

[Mattyblue]

Not this again. Getting put on the ‘easy’ side of the draw pre kicking a ball is luck/fortune/chance, whatever you want to call it, as you have absolutely no input into it via performance on the pitch, it’s pre-determined.

That wasn’t England/Southgate’s problem by the way, as you can only beat (or not) what’s put in front of you, no guarantees, but probabilities wise, it helps. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Mattyblue

[Andy]

Additionally, how many times have we fallen foul of the 'weaker' sides?
Like Iceland, under Woy.

In any case, we beat Germany in a knockout phase in the last couple of tournaments - and, without checking, I'm sure we've beaten some Croatia-level sides also.

You don't get to choose who you play; the trick is beating them and progressing.

Edited 11 hours ago by Andy

[roversfan99]

Of course, it is still an achievement to win these games. The likes of Colombia, Sweden, Switzerland, Senegal, Ukraine, Denmark etc are not mugs, but equally they are not the elite countries and before the draw is made, you would absolutely take those games in the knockout stages. To beat them is an achievement and I have never said otherwise, even if you are the favourite, to win these games even as favourites pretty much every single time is an achievement and Southgate does deserve credit for that.

But whether its the draw at the start, or whether its other group stage results causing bigger teams to fall onto the other side of the draw, none of that is under England's control. Winning our group removes the luck in terms of the last 16 tie as we warrant a favourable draw if we do that, but beyond that, it is all luck. You can't escape that.

That causes issues when comparing different managers across different tournaments. For example, Sven had quarter finals against Brazil and Portugal twice. Whenever Southgate faced that level of opposition, he also fell short, he just was fortunate that it came later in tournaments. To win the extra games in between is both an achievement to win those games and also lucky to avoid the bigger nations. When we did face the elite, ie Spain and France, we lost. You could argue that Germany is the exception to the rule, not quite Spain/France but still a strong team, and equally you could argue that Italy and Croatia aren't the very elite either.

You especially consider that we have played Switzerland, Ukraine and Sweden at the quarter final stage, so beyond the last 16. We also faced Denmark, Croatia and the Netherlands in semi finals. Even Italy in a final, you would absolutely take those at that stage before the tournament rather than the likes of France, Spain and if its a World Cup, Brazil and Argentina. All of those draws are down to luck. 

[M_B]

54 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Of course, it is still an achievement to win these games. The likes of Colombia, Sweden, Switzerland, Senegal, Ukraine, Denmark etc are not mugs, but equally they are not the elite countries and before the draw is made, you would absolutely take those games in the knockout stages. To beat them is an achievement and I have never said otherwise, even if you are the favourite, to win these games even as favourites pretty much every single time is an achievement and Southgate does deserve credit for that.

But whether its the draw at the start, or whether its other group stage results causing bigger teams to fall onto the other side of the draw, none of that is under England's control. Winning our group removes the luck in terms of the last 16 tie as we warrant a favourable draw if we do that, but beyond that, it is all luck. You can't escape that.

That causes issues when comparing different managers across different tournaments. For example, Sven had quarter finals against Brazil and Portugal twice. Whenever Southgate faced that level of opposition, he also fell short, he just was fortunate that it came later in tournaments. To win the extra games in between is both an achievement to win those games and also lucky to avoid the bigger nations. When we did face the elite, ie Spain and France, we lost. You could argue that Germany is the exception to the rule, not quite Spain/France but still a strong team, and equally you could argue that Italy and Croatia aren't the very elite either.

You especially consider that we have played Switzerland, Ukraine and Sweden at the quarter final stage, so beyond the last 16. We also faced Denmark, Croatia and the Netherlands in semi finals. Even Italy in a final, you would absolutely take those at that stage before the tournament rather than the likes of France, Spain and if its a World Cup, Brazil and Argentina. All of those draws are down to luck. 

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

[roversfan99]

8 minutes ago, M_B said:

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

From England's perspective, yes, as they have no control over it.

[M_B]

Just now, roversfan99 said:

From England's perspective, yes, as they have no control over it.

So every fixture of the world Cup finals is either lucky or unlucky to at least one other team?

[RevidgeBlue]

1 hour ago, M_B said:

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

If we end up with Argentina, no.

If we end up with Croatia, yes,  as it is out of England's control, and you would expect Argentina to beat them normally. (Although maybe not as we couldn't beat them either in 2018)

Anyway, when did we reach the World Cup Final?

Edited 7 hours ago by RevidgeBlue

[Upside Down]

6 hours ago, M_B said:

It isn't luck, it's a result of winning or losing games.

Would it have been bad luck for England if we'd messed up like France did, and we'd ended up on the other side of the draw? 

For fucks sake not this again.

Totally embarrassing that a grown adult does not understand the most basic concept of luck. 

Jesus Christ.