England

[Mattyblue]

Not this again. Getting put on the ‘easy’ side of the draw pre kicking a ball is luck/fortune/chance, whatever you want to call it, as you have absolutely no input into it via performance on the pitch, it’s pre-determined.

That wasn’t England/Southgate’s problem by the way, as you can only beat (or not) what’s put in front of you, no guarantees, but probabilities wise, it helps. 

Edited yesterday at 19:27 by Mattyblue

[Andy]

Additionally, how many times have we fallen foul of the 'weaker' sides?
Like Iceland, under Woy.

In any case, we beat Germany in a knockout phase in the last couple of tournaments - and, without checking, I'm sure we've beaten some Croatia-level sides also.

You don't get to choose who you play; the trick is beating them and progressing.

Edited yesterday at 19:25 by Andy

[roversfan99]

Of course, it is still an achievement to win these games. The likes of Colombia, Sweden, Switzerland, Senegal, Ukraine, Denmark etc are not mugs, but equally they are not the elite countries and before the draw is made, you would absolutely take those games in the knockout stages. To beat them is an achievement and I have never said otherwise, even if you are the favourite, to win these games even as favourites pretty much every single time is an achievement and Southgate does deserve credit for that.

But whether its the draw at the start, or whether its other group stage results causing bigger teams to fall onto the other side of the draw, none of that is under England's control. Winning our group removes the luck in terms of the last 16 tie as we warrant a favourable draw if we do that, but beyond that, it is all luck. You can't escape that.

That causes issues when comparing different managers across different tournaments. For example, Sven had quarter finals against Brazil and Portugal twice. Whenever Southgate faced that level of opposition, he also fell short, he just was fortunate that it came later in tournaments. To win the extra games in between is both an achievement to win those games and also lucky to avoid the bigger nations. When we did face the elite, ie Spain and France, we lost. You could argue that Germany is the exception to the rule, not quite Spain/France but still a strong team, and equally you could argue that Italy and Croatia aren't the very elite either.

You especially consider that we have played Switzerland, Ukraine and Sweden at the quarter final stage, so beyond the last 16. We also faced Denmark, Croatia and the Netherlands in semi finals. Even Italy in a final, you would absolutely take those at that stage before the tournament rather than the likes of France, Spain and if its a World Cup, Brazil and Argentina. All of those draws are down to luck. 

[M_B]

54 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Of course, it is still an achievement to win these games. The likes of Colombia, Sweden, Switzerland, Senegal, Ukraine, Denmark etc are not mugs, but equally they are not the elite countries and before the draw is made, you would absolutely take those games in the knockout stages. To beat them is an achievement and I have never said otherwise, even if you are the favourite, to win these games even as favourites pretty much every single time is an achievement and Southgate does deserve credit for that.

But whether its the draw at the start, or whether its other group stage results causing bigger teams to fall onto the other side of the draw, none of that is under England's control. Winning our group removes the luck in terms of the last 16 tie as we warrant a favourable draw if we do that, but beyond that, it is all luck. You can't escape that.

That causes issues when comparing different managers across different tournaments. For example, Sven had quarter finals against Brazil and Portugal twice. Whenever Southgate faced that level of opposition, he also fell short, he just was fortunate that it came later in tournaments. To win the extra games in between is both an achievement to win those games and also lucky to avoid the bigger nations. When we did face the elite, ie Spain and France, we lost. You could argue that Germany is the exception to the rule, not quite Spain/France but still a strong team, and equally you could argue that Italy and Croatia aren't the very elite either.

You especially consider that we have played Switzerland, Ukraine and Sweden at the quarter final stage, so beyond the last 16. We also faced Denmark, Croatia and the Netherlands in semi finals. Even Italy in a final, you would absolutely take those at that stage before the tournament rather than the likes of France, Spain and if its a World Cup, Brazil and Argentina. All of those draws are down to luck. 

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

[roversfan99]

8 minutes ago, M_B said:

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

From England's perspective, yes, as they have no control over it.

[M_B]

Just now, roversfan99 said:

From England's perspective, yes, as they have no control over it.

So every fixture of the world Cup finals is either lucky or unlucky to at least one other team?

[RevidgeBlue]

1 hour ago, M_B said:

England are in the World  Cup final and play either Argentina or Croatia in the final.

Is it luck which determines who they play ?

If we end up with Argentina, no.

If we end up with Croatia, yes,  as it is out of England's control, and you would expect Argentina to beat them normally. (Although maybe not as we couldn't beat them either in 2018)

Anyway, when did we reach the World Cup Final?

Edited 20 hours ago by RevidgeBlue

[Upside Down]

6 hours ago, M_B said:

It isn't luck, it's a result of winning or losing games.

Would it have been bad luck for England if we'd messed up like France did, and we'd ended up on the other side of the draw? 

For fucks sake not this again.

Totally embarrassing that a grown adult does not understand the most basic concept of luck. 

Jesus Christ.

[M_B]

6 hours ago, Upside Down said:

For fucks sake not this again.

Totally embarrassing that a grown adult does not understand the most basic concept of luck. 

Jesus Christ.

That's it, grown adults putting everything down to Mumbo Jumbo rather than just say he did a good job. 

[chaddyrovers]

28 minutes ago, M_B said:

That's it, grown adults putting everything down to Mumbo Jumbo rather than just say he did a good job. 

its embarrassing seeing certain people put England performances and result down to luck not what actually happened on the pitch 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

8 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

If we end up with Argentina, no.

If we end up with Croatia, yes,  as it is out of England's control, and you would expect Argentina to beat them normally. (Although maybe not as we couldn't beat them either in 2018)

Anyway, when did we reach the World Cup Final?

1966.

[RevidgeBlue]

39 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

1966.

Yes I may have heard that mentioned once or twice!

🤣

I meant recently as that was what the poster I replied to was alluding to.

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

its embarrassing seeing certain people put England performances and result down to luck not what actually happened on the pitch 

I didnt say that the performances and results were down to luck. As ever, you either purposefully or otherwise totally misunderstand.

Repeatedly playing teams that arent the world/europes elite in knockout rounds in major tournaments? Especially in the quarter finals and beyond where any advantage of topping the group is gone. Totally out of our control, so its luck.

Beating those teams? Obviously not luck.

[Mattyblue]

Would Rovers have got a stroke of luck if we’d had got to the FA Cup final without playing a PL club? Of course.

Would that make it any less of an achievement? Of course not.

[Upside Down]

3 hours ago, M_B said:

That's it, grown adults putting everything down to Mumbo Jumbo rather than just say he did a good job. 

This is the basics of life and the fact you clearly don't understand it is completely and utterly embarrassing.

The fact you're openly proud of this is a sign of how fucked our society is.

[rigger]

8 minutes ago, Upside Down said:

This is the basics of life and the fact you clearly don't understand it is completely and utterly embarrassing.

The fact you're openly proud of this is a sign of how fucked our society is.

Slightly over the top ? Beamo.

Edited 8 hours ago by rigger

[Upside Down]

1 minute ago, rigger said:

Slightly over the top ? Beamo.

Nah, back of the net. Shearer.

[Dreams of 1995]

Hahahaha back to this again.

If you play those teams in the finals then you play them because they have won the same amount of games as you. They are as deserving to be there as you, regardless of if you consider them “elite countries” (what?)

When Scolari won the World Cup in 2002 he had a team of Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Silva, Cafu and Carlos - they played Belgium, England and Turkey on the way to the final. Arguably an easy route to the final, right? Belgium weren’t the Belgium they are now and Turkey isn’t “elite”, right? The hardest team was England - with Mills at right back and Heskey up top 

Were Brazil lucky? Nope. They beat teams that others couldn’t. Luck had very little to do with it

The quarter finals of that year featured the elite nations of South Korea, Turkey, Senegal, the US and Turkey. It has always been that way. To think you have to beat Germany, Spain, Argentina, Brazil or France on the way to winning a tournament so as not to be ‘lucky’ is delusional

In 06 Italy beat Australia, Ukraine, Germany and France. Was that a lucky win? We could go on and on and on. In 

Germany winning in 2014 is probably the hardest route - they beat Algeria, France, Brazil and Argentina. But even then, France and Brazil had relatively poor teams by historic standards. So were they lucky to come across such poor squads?

I just don’t get it. Luck or otherwise, you have to beat them. And for them to get a quarter final of the World Cup - whether they are Spain or Papa New Guinea - they got there by winning the same games in the same groups in the same location. So they are deserving 

[chaddyrovers]

2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

I didnt say that the performances and results were down to luck. As ever, you either purposefully or otherwise totally misunderstand.

Repeatedly playing teams that arent the world/europes elite in knockout rounds in major tournaments? Especially in the quarter finals and beyond where any advantage of topping the group is gone. Totally out of our control, so its luck.

Beating those teams? Obviously not luck.

You think its down to the luck of the draw which we don't control and you beat whoever you have to play and win the game. 

Its embarrassing how you want to belittled how Southgate performed in major tournaments and it was the best we performed since 1966 

[Mattyblue]

Two opposing things can have an element of truth in them at the same time, novel, I know.

[Hasta]

 Millwall reached an FA Cup final in 2004 before getting battered off Man Utd in the final. Still a great achievement for a 2nd tier club.

However they didn’t face a premier league team until the final. They played:-

Walsall at home,

Telford away 

Burnley at home.

In the quarter final they got past 3rd tier Tranmere, the lowest side still in the tournament. Meanwhile the four remaining Premier League sides all drew each other.

In the semi they beat second tier Sunderland whilst Arsenal played Man Utd in the other semi.

Is anyone actually arguing here that they didn’t have luck on their side with the draw?

Edited 7 hours ago by Hasta

[roversfan99]

Great example. Lucky draws and good achievements can both happen together.

[wilsdenrover]

 

1 hour ago, Mattyblue said:

Two opposing things can have an element of truth in them at the same time, novel, I know.

Exactly.

We deserved to win the Premier league, we were lucky Ludo had a stormer. 

Edited 6 hours ago by wilsdenrover

[Dreams of 1995]

59 minutes ago, Hasta said:

 Millwall reached an FA Cup final in 2004 before getting battered off Man Utd in the final. Still a great achievement for a 2nd tier club.

However they didn’t face a premier league team until the final. They played:-

Walsall at home,

Telford away 

Burnley at home.

In the quarter final they got past 3rd tier Tranmere, the lowest side still in the tournament. Meanwhile the four remaining Premier League sides all drew each other.

In the semi they beat second tier Sunderland whilst Arsenal played Man Utd in the other semi.

Is anyone actually arguing here that they didn’t have luck on their side with the draw?

This is different to what is being suggested here.
The notion is that because we played the likes of “Switzerland, Sweden or Ukraine” in the quarters or “Denmark, Croatia or Netherlands” in the Semi we had lucky draws

The suggestion is that unless you play France, Spain, Brazil or Argentina you have had a lucky draw

But that happens in every World Cup. It happens in every FA Cup too. A premier league club likely spanked a league 2, 1 and a championship club on their way to the FA Cup final. Go back through World Cup winning brackets and you’ll likely see the winners playing a Sweden, South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Turkey etc. it is rare that you will play all Seed 1 nations - that’s why the seeding system is around.

What isn’t being told is that, in order for England to play Switzerland in the quarters, Switzerland had to beat Italy. To play Ukraine in the quarters, we had to beat Germany. Now in your example I don’t know if Walsall or Tranmere beat better quality teams on their way through. Maybe not. Although Tranmere only made a cup final in 2000 so weren’t a terrible side then either. Beside the point - whilst that route was favourable, it was also a stand out in totally avoiding a higher seeded team until the final. Nothing about Englands routes to both finals were extraordinary. It is quite normal to play the nations we played - the route Italy took to the Euro 20 final of Portugal, Spain and France is outside of the norm in modern tournaments.

[Dreams of 1995]

There are also ebbs and flows in international footy more so than domestic, where large clubs now rule the roost

For example we could have played Germany, Brazil, Holland and Spain in recent years and that be seen as favourable as they are going through somewhat of a transition

Conversely, Croatia had been there or thereabouts for tournaments leading up to our loss and teams like Switzerland have been outperforming their historic places by knocking out teams like France, and only losing by penalties to Spain let’s not forget

This is a bit different from a comparison to domestic league positions