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Swiss Ramble thread on Rovers' finances

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Just now, OnePhilT said:

It's as much (if not more so) the supporters' problem as it is Venkys'. Venkys could easily plunge us into administration. I don't want that, especially after how the last couple of years have gone. If would rather continue as we seem to be doing currently than be plunged into administration and then suffer far worse owners. See Bolton Wanderers for near-miss.

Find another Dyche and get promoted would do me.  Didn't spend £7M on the entire team. I'd suggest Allardyce but they already sacked him.

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Just now, 47er said:

Find another Dyche and get promoted would do me.  Didn't spend £7M on the entire team. I'd suggest Allardyce but they already sacked him.

You gave a good answer earlier, by the way - but the problem is our wage ceiling. It sounds like there is one. And it sounds like we have no hope of even getting the Bauers of this world, never mind those who have been released in this league.

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8 minutes ago, OnePhilT said:

You gave a good answer earlier, by the way - but the problem is our wage ceiling. It sounds like there is one. And it sounds like we have no hope of even getting the Bauers of this world, never mind those who have been released in this league.

If we do have a wage ceiling its self-imposed. Giving contract extensions to players now sadly past it, signing players who were never there to start with with, blocking promotion to young ones with something to prove-----all of these have impacted on our wage bill. Signing a safe goalkeeper would be worth 10-15 points a season at least. I've supported Rovers when we didn't have a pot to piss in and its tragic to see us nearly back there.

But we always had good keepers, some brilliant, without paying much of a fee. And we always had at least one rock at centre-back.

Thank you for your complimentary remarks about my previous post---now sadly deleted by admin.

 

Edited by 47er
new info

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Just now, 47er said:

If we do have a wage ceiling its self-imposed. Giving contract extensions to players now sadly past it, signing players who were never there to start with with, blocking promotion to young ones with something to prove-----all of these have impacted on our wage bill. Signing a safe goalkeeper would be worth 10-15 points a season at least. I've supported Rovers when we didn't have a pot to piss in and its tragic to see us nearly back there.

But we always had good keepers, some brilliant, without paying much of a fee. And we always had at least one rock at centre-back.

Thank you for your complimentary remarks about my previous post.

 

This is not true. Travis, Nyambe, Bell , Armstrong, Dack, Lenihan and Rothwell are all young and will be in the starting 11 next season. Butterworth, Buckley, Magloire and Davenport all made their debuts last season. Again, all young. The average age of our starting 11 in the last game was like 23. 

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Just now, 47er said:

If we do have a wage ceiling its self-imposed. Giving contract extensions to players now sadly past it, signing players who were never there to start with with, blocking promotion to young ones with something to prove-----all of these have impacted on our wage bill. Signing a safe goalkeeper would be worth 10-15 points a season at least. I've supported Rovers when we didn't have a pot to piss in and its tragic to see us nearly back there.

But we always had good keepers, some brilliant, without paying much of a fee. And we always had at least one rock at centre-back.

Thank you for your complimentary remarks about my previous post.

 

Spot on about the keeper and centre backs they are the rocks that can help drive a modest team forwards or keep a poor one from complete disaster but clubs and in particular ours don't seem to look at it like that anymore. Nearly everything done in that dept at Ewood over recent years has been about players with potential resale value and cheapo stop gaps.

There's been very little medium term planning, you need to build back to front not front to back or ram the squad with midfielders who can supposedly play in other positions.

Edited by tomphil

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Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

This is not true. Travis, Nyambe, Bell , Armstrong, Dack, Lenihan and Rothwell are all young and will be in the starting 11 next season. Butterworth, Buckley, Magloire and Davenport all made their debuts last season. Again, all young. The average age of our starting 11 in the last game was like 23. 

Spin spin spin. Rothwell was missing from the starting line-up for months even though the supporters rated him highly. When he came in late , he showed what we'd been missing.

Same goes for Travis.

Lenihan was an established starter before this season. Dack isn't young for a footballer----26. Bell's game has gone backwards but plays. Nyambe hasn't featured much lately. The last 4 you mention all made a token appearance or two when it was all over. Hopefully will be used properly next season but you wouldn't bet on it.

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24 minutes ago, 47er said:

Find another Dyche and get promoted would do me.  Didn't spend £7M on the entire team. I'd suggest Allardyce but they already sacked him.

I think this is the crux.

FFP whether we like it or not means a transfer embargo if you are in breach. We’ve been there, it didn’t do us any favours.

There is a school of thought that says “put the house on red” & hope that it doesn’t come up black...but that is selling the family silver...like a sale & leaseback on your ground, it’s not sustainable. I’m not going to castigate the owners (whoever they are) for not gambling with the future of the club.

Let’s also acknowledge that 3 clubs come down each year with massive parachute payments that last for 3 years & we have to compete with those clubs, plus in the Championship we are also up against a  number of rivals with larger fan bases than ours which works in their favour regarding FFP calculations.

The model for a sustainable punt on promotion is Burnley, Norwich, Sheff Utd...so you’re right, we need a manager, working in a system that identifies, develops (& possibly sells on) a conveyor belt of young talent mixed with shrewd “Moneyball” type signings.

I think our academy is now starting to show the fruits of recent labours so we need to augment it with some signings a la Pukki (& Dack) etc to have a shot & all working for a manager with a clear plan as to how to extract the maximum value from such a squad.

Dyche did it. Wilder did it. Farke did it.

Step up to the plate Mr M !!!

 

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Just now, Herbie6590 said:

I think this is the crux.

FFP whether we like it or not means a transfer embargo if you are in breach. We’ve been there, it didn’t do us any favours.

There is a school of thought that says “put the house on red” & hope that it doesn’t come up black...but that is selling the family silver...like a sale & leaseback on your ground, it’s not sustainable. I’m not going to castigate the owners (whoever they are) for not gambling with the future of the club.

Let’s also acknowledge that 3 clubs come down each year with massive parachute payments that last for 3 years & we have to compete with those clubs, plus in the Championship we are also up against a  number of rivals with larger fan bases than ours which works in their favour regarding FFP calculations.

The model for a sustainable punt on promotion is Burnley, Norwich, Sheff Utd...so you’re right, we need a manager, working in a system that identifies, develops (& possibly sells on) a conveyor belt of young talent mixed with shrewd “Moneyball” type signings.

I think our academy is now starting to show the fruits of recent labours so we need to augment it with some signings a la Pukki (& Dack) etc to have a shot & all working for a manager with a clear plan as to how to extract the maximum value from such a squad.

Dyche did it. Wilder did it. Farke did it.

Step up to the plate Mr M !!!

 

Who was the most recent club to be put under a transfer embargo for a breach? Birmingham were put under a 'partial embargo' whatever one of those is and still went ahead and spent £3 million without having to sell anyone. They had a phase of dishing out embargoes 5 years ago when the rules had only just come in but since then there's been very little.

There's a difference between betting the ranch and spending heavily. Depends on what the owners want to do. Spending gazillions is fine as long as the owners are prepared to do it and won't chuck in the towel as soon as it doesn't work well. We're told Venkys are billionaires and are desperate for the club to succeed.

A sale & leaseback of the ground need not be gambling the club's future. What Derby did was clever, helped them avoid FFP trouble whilst assembling a good side and now they're on the cusp of promotion because of it. Very clever. No doubt when the time comes their owner will transfer their ground back for a nominal fee and in the meantime they'll be paying peppercorn rent. It isn't the case that he's sold it off to 3rd party property developers etc.

Burnley had parachute income when they went up so were at an advantage that apparently we can't compete with. Think Norwich were too. Sheffield United signed people like Norwood, McGoldrick and Clarke none of whom fit into our recruitment criteria of value growth.

Mowbray is now balancing the demands of a support base with the lunacy of the owners. Tough job.

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3 hours ago, 47er said:

Spin spin spin. Rothwell was missing from the starting line-up for months even though the supporters rated him highly. When he came in late , he showed what we'd been missing.

Same goes for Travis.

Lenihan was an established starter before this season. Dack isn't young for a footballer----26. Bell's game has gone backwards but plays. Nyambe hasn't featured much lately. The last 4 you mention all made a token appearance or two when it was all over. Hopefully will be used properly next season but you wouldn't bet on it.

Practically very single word in your post is spin.

Whether Lenihan was a starter before is irrelevant. Mowbray also made him captain. 

Bells ability doesn't change his age

Nyambe played 29 games last season.

Armstrong played most games

Raya was one of the youngest first choice keepers in the league

Token appearances or not re the other 4, they still made their debuts. This is progress 

The reality is the average age of our starting 11 is very young. The narrative that Mowbray doesn't give youth a chance isn't true. You might not agree with the players he plays from our youngsters, but he does play a lot of them. 

The issue is we need more experienced players who have won promotion in the past. 

Edited by Bigdoggsteel

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Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

Practically very single word in your post is spin.

Whether Lenihan was a starter before is irrelevant. Mowbray also made him captain. 

Bells ability doesn't change his age

Nyambe played 29 games last season.

Armstrong played most games

Raya was one of the youngest first choice keepers in the league

Token appearances or not re the other 4, they still made their debuts. This is progress 

The reality is the average age of our starting 11 is very young. The narrative that Mowbray doesn't give youth a chance isn't true. You might not agree with the players he plays from our youngsters, but he does play a lot of them. 

The issue is we need more experienced players who have won promotion in the past. 

I’m curious. 

What’s spin about saying Rothwell didn’t play until later in the season? 

Or from about half way for Travis? I’ve been to most home games and that’s not spin, it’s fact...

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Just now, K-Hod said:

I’m curious. 

What’s spin about saying Rothwell didn’t play until later in the season? 

Or from about half way for Travis? I’ve been to most home games and that’s not spin, it’s fact...

Did you read the earlier posts? The conversation was in relation to whether Mowbray gives young players a chance. I never said that pointing out when Rothwell or Travis eventually got in was spin. 

We can all have our views on when both Rothwell and Travis should have broken into the starting 11, but the reality is they are now in the team. Same as all of the others players under 25 in the starting 11 and match day squad. 

Christ, he spent £7 million on a 19 year old. 

Edited by Bigdoggsteel

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Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

Did you read the earlier posts? The conversation was in relation to whether Mowbray gives young players a chance. I never said that pointing out when Rothwell or Travis eventually got in was spin. 

We can all have our views on when both Rothwell and Travis should have broken into the starting 11, but the reality is they are now in the team. Same as all of the others players under 25 in the starting 11 and match day squad. 

Christ, he spent £7 million on a 19 year old. 

And doesn’t play him.

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Just now, Stuart said:

And doesn’t play him.

No, but he said he hopes he will push for a starting place next season. When he will be 20. Adding to my argument that he gives youth a chance. 

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33 minutes ago, K-Hod said:

I’m curious. 

What’s spin about saying Rothwell didn’t play until later in the season? 

I find the Rothwell debate a bit odd.

Mowbray pretty consistently used him as a sub right from the start. Overall, he made appearances in 37 of our 51 games this year. Clearly indicates Mowbray did value his talents to some extent, but simply didn't trust him over 90 minutes (think Chapman last year...).

As he says in that interview in India, and he's consistently said so, he thinks Rothwell's positional awareness was lacking when he arrived, having been given too long a leash when he was at Oxford. Like everyone else, I thought Rothwell was excellent down the stretch and his late season rise was one of the highlights of the season, but I think there's been some selective memory about his pre-January appearances. Looking back at old game threads, he was often criticised for running into blind alleys, giving the ball away, etc., and I doubt you'll find specific praise of his defensive abilities (always a difficult area to judge). Fans weren't calling for his head of course, and it's important to keep in mind he was often subbed into games we were behind and looking for a goal, but his appearances certainly weren't universally praised.

It's fair to argue Rothwell wasn't given a fair stretch of games to grow into a role, and he certainly has a creative spark we often lacked, but his early results were ultimately indifferent, and we're also largely blind to what Rothwell was showing in training, including whatever tactical training that he may have been lacking when he arrived. Cue jokes about Mowbray having any tactical nous himself... but my point is we only have a limited idea of what players are showing outside of games.

Feel free to disagree with Mowbray's assessment of Rothwell's initial all-around abilities (and I would agree that he was ultimately late in incorporating him in the 1st team), but I don't think it's all that scandalous for Mowbray to suggest Rothwell was a work in progress (who we got for cheap!) that had developed enough by January that he could trust him.

(Not directing this all at you K-Hod, btw. Just using your post as a jumping point!)

Edited by RoverCanada

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Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

No, but he said he hopes he will push for a starting place next season. When he will be 20. Adding to my argument that he gives youth a chance. 

Except he doesn’t.

He waits til his hand is forced.

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Just now, Stuart said:

Except he doesn’t.

He waits til his hand is forced.

Now THATS spin 🙂 

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In terms of youth he played the ones already in the team when he arrived and plonked in Raya then since he's given others bits and bats but he even doesn't trust his own 6 million pound young signing in his favoured position or as a starter much.

I guess it's just the way he works and like other managers he has his favourites and others he doesn't seem to fancy but is duty bound to give them some involvement as is the mantra of the club now. Those things don't often tally with supporters feelings on the same players but at the same time he seems duty bound more towards his seniors, again just the way he works.

He seems to base a lot of this on things other than what we see in games I think, maybe stats, training ground stats, fitness stats and of course day to day attitude. I just think he's very methodical in all that and refuses to budge.

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Just now, Stuart said:

Except he doesn’t.

He waits til his hand is forced.

Travis fecked up when given his chance the season before last. 

Yes, his hand was forced to play Rothwell, the player HE signed after chasing for a couple of windows. 

Edited by Bigdoggsteel

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 if we add a keeper and a solid defender we have the basis of a very good team. Chapman to add some width, davenport to control the midfield and if by some miracle brereton finds a first touch and some positional awareness another striking option.

I think dack will leave but rothwell os capable of filling those shoes, whether he does is a different story.

We could have a good season then the vultures start circling and it all starts again. Struggle for a season or two while the younger lads cut there teeth, see some promise , start believing and then the vultures strike again. 

I know before and to some extent with Jack this had always been the case but it's about the re investment. We can't solely rely on young projects. We still need some quality proven players dotted about. It's better to have them on the field guiding  them than conway and co in the dressing room.

If Tony does this then it's case of we are what we are and try our best to compete. If we are solely a club nurturing other teams talent then it's going to be a long, frustrating and disappointing decade

Edited by Oldgregg86

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Just now, tomphil said:

In terms of youth he played the ones already in the team when he arrived and plonked in Raya then since he's given others bits and bats but he even doesn't trust his own 6 million pound young signing in his favoured position or as a starter much.

I guess it's just the way he works and like other managers he has his favourites and others he doesn't seem to fancy but is duty bound to give them some involvement as is the mantra of the club now. Those things don't often tally with supporters feelings on the same players but at the same time he seems duty bound more towards his seniors, again just the way he works.

He seems to base a lot of this on things other than what we see in games I think, maybe stats, training ground stats, fitness stats and of course day to day attitude. I just think he's very methodical in all that and refuses to budge.

I think the last paragraph is key and ain't it the way things should be?

He doesn't always get it right, about 70/30 as things stand, but I still say he gives youth a chance. The make up of our squad shows that. You say bits and bat's, but he brought Armstrong and Bell in as regular starters, both young players.

He is undoubtedly stubborn and sticks to his guns in some ways which were to our detriment last season, but I don't think he is inflexible to the point where we should be concerned. I reckon we will see a very young and exciting team next season. Hopefully with at least 2 players added who have won promotion before. He knows we can't rely on some of the older heads, his approach to Mulgrew, Conway and Smallwood showed that. 

Edited by Bigdoggsteel

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Cracks me up that Mowbray can chase and sign an exciting young player for peanuts, clearly develop his game, turn him into one of the first names on the team sheet and one of our best and most valuable assets...

But gets no credit whatsover and just absolutely mullered for not doing it "quicker"!

Edited by S8 & Blue

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He gets loads of credit, to be fair. 

Having seen how well Rothwell did when he was started, how exactly is it unreasonable to query why he didn’t play more often? 

Could we have finished higher in the league if Rothwell had played more often? Instead of the 2.5 attackers thing? I guess we will never know...

Edited by K-Hod

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Just now, K-Hod said:

He gets loads of credit, to be fair. 

Having seen how well Rothwell did when he was started, how exactly is it unreasonable to query why he didn’t play more often? 

For the reasons mentioned above. Perhaps it was Mowbrays management of Rothwell that led to his absolute flourish at the end of the season. 

He chased and signed him. He obviously wanted him. It's not like Mowbray has been some detriment to Rothwells career. In fact, it's the opposite  

Edited by Bigdoggsteel

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Just now, K-Hod said:

He gets loads of credit, to be fair. 

Hope so, he certainly didn't last time I looked.

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Just now, K-Hod said:

He gets loads of credit, to be fair. 

Having seen how well Rothwell did when he was started, how exactly is it unreasonable to query why he didn’t play more often? 

Could we have finished higher in the league if Rothwell had played more often? Instead of the 2.5 attackers thing? I guess we will never know...

Isn’t it equally easy to argue that work on the training pitch turned him from the nearly man early doors, to potentially one of our best?

I might be wrong on stats, but I’m sure Rothwell had 26 sub appearances before assisting or scoring a goal.

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