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[Archived] Betting Thread

Mike E

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Mike E World Cup

Mike E

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Let's try that again...

Anybody willing to play the £10 game? You start with £10 (hypothetically if you don't wish to gamble real money) and can bet on any sport you want as long as you post bet details on here in advance.

I'd rather not include in-play betting or cash out (more like cop out) betting as it introduces too many variables to keep track of.

Fancy it? Let us know on here if you're going to bet by Friday. The first event that can be bet on in this game will be the Rovers V Preston match.

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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Got no problem if you want to close the other thread but there's no reason to hide it. You could turn that into an anti-gambling/animal rights thread since its turned into that at no fault of my own.

I'm going to ask on twitter anyway but on behalf of others here's a question. How late can horses be registered? After that race yesterday I've decided to use a strategy to find races with as many non runners as possible. There's a race at 3.20 Huntington which only has 3 runners at the moment. One is 4/9 and one is 66/1. The other is 7/4.

You probably shouldn't risk too much on the 4/9 because its poor value placing a huge bet on that and a slightly lower (but still huge) bet on the 66/1. However you could put about £2.30 on 4/9 (you might get a bonus if it wins) and place £1 on the 66/1. Obviously people might think that horse is completely useless. Apparently it has had issues with fences but can be a winner at dual hurdles whatever the hell that is. Its been tipped by at least 3 people so could be worth a go at those odds...

I know there might be non runners (assume they can pull out at any point before they have to be in the stalls) but you get your money back then anyway.

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Hasta

Hasta

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Got no problem if you want to close the other thread but there's no reason to hide it. You could turn that into an anti-gambling/animal rights thread since its turned into that at no fault of my own.

I'm going to ask on twitter anyway but on behalf of others here's a question. How late can horses be registered? After that race yesterday I've decided to use a strategy to find races with as many non runners as possible. There's a race at 3.20 Huntington which only has 3 runners at the moment. One is 4/9 and one is 66/1. The other is 7/4.

You probably shouldn't risk too much on the 4/9 because its poor value placing a huge bet on that and a slightly lower (but still huge) bet on the 66/1. However you could put about £2.30 on 4/9 (you might get a bonus if it wins) and place £1 on the 66/1. Obviously people might think that horse is completely useless. Apparently it has had issues with fences but can be a winner at dual hurdles whatever the hell that is. Its been tipped by at least 3 people so could be worth a go at those odds...

I know there might be non runners (assume they can pull out at any point before they have to be in the stalls) but you get your money back then anyway.

Jumps races declare 24 hours in advance and flat 48 hours. There's been an absolute flood (if you pardon the pun) of non runners due to the drastically changed weather this weekend hence the unusually high number of small fields.

It's only a viable strategy if the outsider you are backing has ability or a significant weight pull. The 66/1 shot today had neither, hence why it got beat by over 130 lengths !!!! The one yesterday was a good shout.

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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Jumps races declare 24 hours in advance and flat 48 hours. There's been an absolute flood (if you pardon the pun) of non runners due to the drastically changed weather this weekend hence the unusually high number of small fields.

It's only a viable strategy if the outsider you are backing has ability or a significant weight pull. The 66/1 shot today had neither, hence why it got beat by over 130 lengths !!!! The one yesterday was a good shout.

Yes noticed the weather yesterday and made that connection with all the non runners. Think I even saw one person say all remaining races at Plumpton (including the one I tipped) might be called off. Obviously I've never seen a race with only 3 runners before (never bet on horses much) which is why I started that thread to tip people off.

Didn't even recoup my money back on that 4/9 today because that lost as well. It was only £3.27 anyway overall anyway with £1 on the 66/1. Did see a couple of people tip the 66/1 (on the betting site tip advisor) but maybe I should have looked a bit closer. Yes the 11/1 yesterday was better should have remembered there's a big difference between 11/1 and 66/1 though the 11/1 didn't win either it did come 2nd. Might still have done the same though with only three runners you never know if one of the other horses might pull up. Then in a scenario where the 66/1 might have scraped into 2nd it would have won instead. Unless there's a void rule with only 2 left in the event the 3rd pulled up?

I bet £20 quid each on the 11/1 and EVS yesterday. Fortunately I didn't bet a few quid more on the 66/1 with a stupidly big bet on the 4/9 to cover the likely loss. I was tempted to do it for a moment though almost immediately realised it would have been stupid. I learnt my lesson a few years ago on silly bets (not talking losing hundreds or anything that big its not like I began at £10 stakes) with the "martingale strategy" on roulette. Now that was incredibly stupid because if "martingale" was a good strategy everyone would do it! Somehow I had the completely idiotic (and arrogant) thought nobody else had thought of it (didn't know people commonly called it martingale at that point) could only see the £ signs. People of good intelligence (don't want to sound arrogant but its fair to say that about myself and I certainly think there's other intelligent people on here) can even have completely stupid ideas. I made decent profit the first few times but then the inevitable lol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

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K-Hod World Cup

K-Hod

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matched betting ? whats that about and is it as risk free as they say?

Some info here- http://www.matchedbetting.co.uk/

Basically I think it's when you see an offer (i.e. free £30 bet when you bet £30/add £30 to your account). You sometimes do get free bets when signing up but they're rarer than ever these days and you don't get your stake back if you win.

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cmb211087 Premier League

cmb211087

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matched betting ? whats that about and is it as risk free as they say?

Google profit accumulator.

It is a matched betting site that shows exactly what amount to put on to make a profit. The jist is you place a bet for, then on betfair or smarkets place a bet against (having used the profit accumulator calculator). This means you lose about 3p, but you get a free bet. Do the same again but using the free bet instead of your own money, and you are guarenteed a profit.

I think that site gives you two free ones to use, then you need to sign up to get a lot more. It is worth it though, in January I made over a grand by doing this. Horse races are your best shot as they have a lot of them in one day, so you can easily make a bit of cash each day.

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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Sea of Blue (good name) 4/1 at Dundalk 9pm. Horse has won 2 out of last 4 starts at this venue and is the favorite on William Hill. You could place a relatively decent sized bet (say £17) and place a couple of quid on 2 longer shots being tipped. For instance perhaps on a 9/1 and a 16/1 level range and maybe retain a small profit. Some of the the longshot tips suggest "each way" betting though which I believe means you get at least a bit back if it finishes top 3. Of course it would get more for 1st "each way" than just placing the usual standard bet.

The 2nd favorite is currently 9/2 (locus standi) and has beaten Sea of blue recently. On the other hand Sea of blue has beaten locus recently as well. Big field though currently 14 horses registered as running.

EDIT-Sea of Blue lost but still made a £12 profit as one of the smaller "value bets" at 16/1 won. Done ok with that strategy this week (though the earlier one was a 3 runner race and that's extremely rare) but hopefully I'll get the BIG win next time.

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Mike E World Cup

Mike E

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What I don't get is people betting on professional wrestling. No matter on how tightly guarded storylines might be, how can you bet or calculate odds on predetermined events?

Take it up with the bookies! I think it's fine, as the vast majority don't know. Plus it's usually at PPV events where matches are more unpredictable for most fans.

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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What I don't get is people betting on professional wrestling. No matter on how tightly guarded storylines might be, how can you bet or calculate odds on predetermined events?

Same reason people bet on soap outcomes or other scripted programmes. With wrestling there could actually be more value on long odds. A match could be stopped for genuine injury, etc which isn't the case with soaps though perhaps that would void the bet. Though there was someone on Reddit for a while who predicted PPV outcomes 100%. WWE obviously took note of this because it hasn't been 100% as much since then. Whether it was an employee or someone who knew an employee (which really would make it the employee whether they posted it or not) not sure. They could simply guard the finishes more safely too and only let the agents (generally retired wrestlers who go over the match with the current guys beforehand) and wrestlers know the finish. Sometimes they will only hear the finish that very same day.

Its 2016 people shouldn't make such a big deal out of it being scripted now. Irony though is its more scripted than its ever been!

Actually now that you have reminded me maybe I'll put a small stake on an accumulator for Wrestlemania. If you can do that with wrestling events...

Funny thing is too there's perhaps more risk betting on football with "match fixing" going on even though its rare!

If a wrestler decided to "shoot" (from a physical standpoint that means literally attempt to hurt another wrestler) they would be fired on the spot. Many years ago when promoters claimed it was genuine competition that was a serious concern. There are instances many years ago where the reputation of a wrestler was completely destroyed because somebody went against the arranged outcome. Some wrestlers were legitimately skilled in fighting think of Brock Lesnar now and if he decided to "shoot" despite being scripted to lose! Sometimes a rival promoter (or even the promoter of that event) might have conspired with a wrestler to double cross another wrestler.

The modern day example of that would be at Survivor Series 1997 perhaps the most famous finish in wrestling history.

That wasn't exactly a "shoot" (neither of the wrestlers in this instance intentionally tried to injure the other though one of them was in on the double cross) but there are other ways to change the finish. In this case the crowd were led to believe one of the wrestlers had submitted (and the bell was rung) though everyone knew he hadn't which couldn't have been any more obvious. Some people did think it was done that way on purpose to fool everyone (and some people felt it was the greatest finish ever in wrestling) but it quickly became obvious it was a genuine double cross. The wrestler of course was Bret Hart and if anyone still believes it was scripted that way all along they are fools. Owen Hart's accidental death more than anything confirmed it wasn't because Bret was obviously incensed over Owen's accident. He's worked with WWE since of course but he was very bitter about it for a long time.

Some wrestlers might get a little "stiff" (and give a receipt if they are getting stiffed for instance if a punch connects more than it was supposed to) but I mean blatantly going against the script.

Shouldn't need any further explanation and we already have a wrestling thread (though I can understand the question being asked here which is fair enough albeit it too focused on "fake" which is irrelevant)

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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Flyboy at Doncaster on Sunday

Just a reminder (to others also) please state the exact time particularly for races. Also whether its horse racing or greyhounds though in this case assuming its horse racing. Don't really seem to see greyhounds racing during the afternoon. Easy enough to find no doubt but saves people a couple of min searching.

Greyhounds always seem to be "SP" on William Hill right up until the last few min before it starts. That's quite annoying and also there are far less tips on greyhounds than horse racing.

https://support.skybet.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/170/~/what-does-sp-mean%3F

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VinjayV4 Uefa Europa League

VinjayV4

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Uttoxeter at 3.45pm today only 3 runners. If you bet on the favorite for recoup and tiny profit (oscar sunset currently 11/10) and 2nd favorite (rothman currently 7/4) Rothman could get something reasonably worthwhile back. Wouldn't risk an insane bet if you do that perhaps no more than £10 on both. That would mean a £1 profit on Oscar and £7.50 on Rothman (plus any bonus on some sites).

William Hill hasn't mentioned the 3rd (which is currently 10/3) on the main preview/forecast. Not quite 11/1 value (like in the 3 runner tipped on my first post in that other thread) but not bad either.

You could even bet on the 3rd one too as a way of getting at least a few quid back. Since the oscar bet is mostly to recoup anyway it kind of makes some sense. Though the profit on a oscar win would go from extremely small to miniscule.

The best value for many of course would just be to bet on one and forget the other two.

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