[Archived] Venky's willing to sell?

[super_arran]

Nauuuughty

[thebigguy]

"Ross Kemp on fans"

Seems like a sketch from this

[Dee]

Qatari's urged to buy Rangers

[Stuart]

Qatari's urged to buy Rangers

"Ex dundee director di stefano tells Qatar ruler buying rangers is best deal in football/"

I guess that's if you want to win the SPL.

[Majiball]

"Ex dundee director di stefano tells Qatar ruler buying rangers is best deal in football/"

I guess that's if you want to win the SPL.

What you trying to say Stupot?

And to think I helped you!

[Amo]

Any Qatari with the ambition, and money to match, would not buy a SPL club.

[Stuart]

What you trying to say Stupot?

And to think I helped you!

It's a fair comment Maj. Challenge for you though. Why should a Qatari billionaire buy an SPL club? Just look at Hearts...

[rovers11]

A very interesting article has come up on twitter: http://americanrovers.com/?p=8

I find the bit about relegation particularly interesting. It's something that I have been wondering for some time - is it actually beneficial for Venky's for us to be relegated? They have not exactly done anything to ensure that we stay up - they didn't buy any players in January, they have refused to change manager, and they sold our best player. Not exactly the action of owners who are desperate to stay up.

As the writer of the blog suggests, the Jones/Samba money has gone on paying up most of our debt; and if we go down they can use the parachute payment to pay of the existing debt, whilst also selling of our biggest assets and buying cheaper ones on smaller wages. That would give them a nice profit on player trading and could also sell the club for 10m (a realistic price) and therefore be cash neutral or even make a small profit.

Although they bought the club to promote the Venky's brand and promote football in india they may now realise this cannot be achieved in the way they thought.

[Driftpeasant]

A very interesting article has come up on twitter: http://americanrovers.com/?p=8

I find the bit about relegation particularly interesting. It's something that I have been wondering for some time - is it actually beneficial for Venky's for us to be relegated? They have not exactly done anything to ensure that we stay up - they didn't buy any players in January, they have refused to change manager, and they sold our best player. Not exactly the action of owners who are desperate to stay up.

As the writer of the blog suggests, the Jones/Samba money has gone on paying up most of our debt; and if we go down they can use the parachute payment to pay of the existing debt, whilst also selling of our biggest assets and buying cheaper ones on smaller wages. That would give them a nice profit on player trading and could also sell the club for 10m (a realistic price) and therefore be cash neutral or even make a small profit.

Although they bought the club to promote the Venky's brand and promote football in india they may now realise this cannot be achieved in the way they thought.

So I'm the writer of said article, and I'll probably expand on my thoughts a little in a follow up later today.

That being said:

There are 4 reasons Venky's might care that Rovers stay up:

1. Premier League TV Revenue
   
2. Team Pride
   
3. Advertising value
   
4. Sale value
   

First, Premier League TV Revenue. If you read my article, you'll note that right now the club is losing money. Venky's aren't comfortable with that (whether they should be is an entirely different discussion). In an ideal world for Venky's, Rovers would stay up, they'd divest themselves of the "high" wage players, and buy a squad similar to Swansea or Norwich this year, or Blackpool last year - one that's cheap, but good enough to compete in the Premier League. The problem here is that, in order to do that, they need a) a good manager, and to survive to the summer. In order to guarantee survival, Venky's would have had to invest in players in the January window, or invest in a new manager. Both of those are expensive, and commit the club to contractual obligations (read: money) that Venky's don't want to have, especially since they have a good shot at getting back to even if relegation occurs. So the TV revenue is not a driving factor for them right now.

Second, Team Pride. Venky's have no emotional connection with Rovers. They view the club as a business unit. If a business unit underperforms, you try to salvage it, shut it down, or sell it. Venky's aren't going to close Rovers - they'd never get any money out of the fixtures, and the negative publicity in the UK would hamper their expansion efforts there for 20 years or more. So they'll salvage or sell it. Venky's will only invest in Rovers if it makes them money, or avoids greater losses (i.e. spend 10m to avoid a 60m loss). Right now they have no incentive to do that. The club is salable whether it's in the Championship or the Premier League - the reduced price in the former isn't a driver for Venky's given the current situation. Other owners invest for pride, either local (Peter Coates, Dave Whelan) or international (Roman Abramovich, the owners of Manchester City). Venky's attempts to gain international recognition through Rovers have largely failed, and they have no real local ties to Blackburn, so neither of these is realistically a reason for them to care if Rovers stay up.

Third, Advertising Value. After an initial flurry of effort to try to sign a Big Name Brazilian player, Venky's seem to have abandoned using Rovers as a springboard into the South American market. Similarly, after the one attempt at a UK commercial was ridiculed more than revered, their attempts at breaking into the UK market have trailed off as well. At my new company, we have a branch in Chennai. I've asked employees over there whether they've heard of Rovers - and they have. They read the story about Venky's purchase of the club, but it hasn't made a dent in the popular zeitgeist otherwise. I admit my sample size is small, and my evidence anecdotal, but it does suggest that Rovers aren't being used as an advertising lever in India. Again, Venky's have no reason to care that Rovers stay in the Prem.

Fourth, Sale Value. A Premier League club is worth more at sale than a Championship one. Unfortunately I believe Venky's feel they can be made financially whole whether they sell Rovers for 20-30m in the Premier League, or 10m in the Championship. The latter option gives them less financial risk in the interim. As such, I do not believe Venky's think sale value is enough of a driver to warrant the investment necessary to stay in the Premier League.

Again - I think Venky's would be happy for Rovers to stay up - they get made financially whole that much faster - but they won't be crushed if we go down.

[Stuart]

A very well considered post DP.

If you are right, then it's every Rovers fan's worst fears all come true.

We have (and will see a worsening of) the perfect storm of poor owners, poor manager and poor players. Even the Blackpools, Burnleys, Norwiches and Swanseas had capable, astute managers (for at least part of the time) - this is where Venkys have fallen down. If we stay up, then we can only expect it to be even worse next season. Why would they change their approach next season when they have done nothing to arrest the decline this time around. (rhet)

Also, you suggest they wouldn't want to close Rovers down. I'm not so sure they would care about negative publicity in the UK. Are they really going to concern themselves with competing in the British fast food market when they would surely have more success in the BRIC countries. Ironic, considering what you get if you replace "India" with "Football" - maybe someone screwed up with a typo in their global marketing strategy and they ended up with BRFC!

Playing devil's advocate, I'm not sure that being satisfied that they will get their money back (if the worst happens) Is the same as seeing relegation as being beneficial, though.

[rovers1993]

I agree with your post DP.

I still live in hope that Venky's will be gone this summer and I really do think that they will be. Imagine yourself as a head of a billion dollar business empire, the last thing you would want is to have to constantly manage a business-unit that you neither care about or making profit. That is Blackburn for Venkys. Their objective for buying the club has utterly failed and I absolutely see no reason for them to want to stay on anymore. I am quietly confident that they will be gone. The only problem I see is if we continue to stay in PL. If we do stay in the PL, with Venkys cutting cost all around, we might be able to turn profit and actually make money for Venkys.

Side note: I still have a slight slight slight 0.01% that some how Venky's will turn out to be like Mike Ashley for Newcastle. When he came in to Newcastle they were ###### finically and got relegated with Joe Kinnear (Ala Steve Kean). Look at them now. I somehow still hang on to the hope that they are trying to get our financials in order and rebuild from the bottom like Ashley did with Newcasle (Now they are a top team, low wages, great team spirit and quite literally the opposite of when Mike Ashley took over). Newcastle fans hated him as much as we hate Venkys now but it has all turned around so I still live in that hope.

[Stuart]

As bad as he was, it's an insult to Joe Kinnear to compare him to Steve Kean.

[OJRovers]

I agree with your post DP.

I still live in hope that Venky's will be gone this summer and I really do think that they will be. Imagine yourself as a head of a billion dollar business empire, the last thing you would want is to have to constantly manage a business-unit that you neither care about or making profit. That is Blackburn for Venkys. Their objective for buying the club has utterly failed and I absolutely see no reason for them to want to stay on anymore. I am quietly confident that they will be gone. The only problem I see is if we continue to stay in PL. If we do stay in the PL, with Venkys cutting cost all around, we might be able to turn profit and actually make money for Venkys.

Side note: I still have a slight slight slight 0.01% that some how Venky's will turn out to be like Mike Ashley for Newcastle. When he came in to Newcastle they were ###### finically and got relegated with Joe Kinnear (Ala Steve Kean). Look at them now. I somehow still hang on to the hope that they are trying to get our financials in order and rebuild from the bottom like Ashley did with Newcasle (Now they are a top team, low wages, great team spirit and quite literally the opposite of when Mike Ashley took over). Newcastle fans hated him as much as we hate Venkys now but it has all turned around so I still live in that hope.

I admire the optimism, but Ashley put £100s of million into the club (and the Geordies still moaned). Then he made sensible decisions such as bringing in Pardew, nothing we have seen of Venkys so far puts them anywhere near capable of doing this both financially and football-minded.

[ada2020]

Wonder if the trusts remit to venkys was take rovers down in good financial order?

I have had his idea for a while now, it's quite a comfortable job for a group so far removed from the club is it not?

Just a thought really that kind of ties in with the latest article.

[Stuart]

Wonder if the trusts remit to venkys was take rovers down in good financial order?

I have had his idea for a while now, it's quite a comfortable job for a group so far removed from the club is it not?

Just a thought really that kind of ties in with the latest article.

Why? In order to buy it back?

[funny-old-game]

Plus Ashley has a passion for Newcastle, goes to games as a fan, puts money in and only wants them to do well.

This lot spat thier dummy out the pram when they got stick for all the sh1t decision they have made, and are no long interested in the club they once promised to "look after and respect its long tradition".

That the difference.

[Driftpeasant]

A very well considered post DP.

If you are right, then it's every Rovers fan's worst fears all come true.

We have (and will see a worsening of) the perfect storm of poor owners, poor manager and poor players. Even the Blackpools, Burnleys, Norwiches and Swanseas had capable, astute managers (for at least part of the time) - this is where Venkys have fallen down. If we stay up, then we can only expect it to be even worse next season. Why would they change their approach next season when they have done nothing to arrest the decline this time around. (rhet)

Also, you suggest they wouldn't want to close Rovers down. I'm not so sure they would care about negative publicity in the UK. Are they really going to concern themselves with competing in the British fast food market when they would surely have more success in the BRIC countries. Ironic, considering what you get if you replace "India" with "Football" - maybe someone screwed up with a typo in their global marketing strategy and they ended up with BRFC!

Playing devil's advocate, I'm not sure that being satisfied that they will get their money back (if the worst happens) Is the same as seeing relegation as being beneficial, though.

I can't see them closing the club - the money they'd get off selling Ewood and Brockhall isn't nearly as high as the money they'd get off selling a Premier League or Championship club. The bad publicity is just gravy on top of that.

Generally you only shut down a business unit if there is seriously no way it will ever make you any money ever again. Rovers are still a salable asset - I don't see that changing any time soon. Now, if Venky's try the (semi)intentional relegation route, Rovers go down to the Championship, a new owner cannot be found, and Rovers, like Charlton before them, freefall into League One, THEN the real estate might be more valuable than the club, and it could be wound up. But Venky's would somehow have to get Blackburn Council to agree to allow the land to be repurposed, and I can't see that happening.

[ada2020]

Why? In order to buy it back?

Buy it back? Do you see that happening Stuart?

No, simply because they recognise that in today's game a club the size of rovers cannot continue to dine at the top table being run the way it was for much longer.

The backlash for the Walkers if they took this course of action would be hard and in their doorstep too.

Venkys fit the bill quite nicely to achieve the job being so far removed from rovers and Lancashire.

It's a conspiracy theory of mine, I'm not suggesting it is the case but its quite feasible

It might explain the cheap price tag they got the club for too. The cost cutting and offloading of our premier league earners as stated in the article above could be viewed as a damage limitation effort as we move towards what might be seen as our correct status.

Just a thought.

Must admit that like Rovers1993 I kind of harbour hopes venkys are getting the ship in order so that they can take the club forward. Can't help but feel I'll be disappointed though, let's face it to continue with Kean is just jeopardising the league status. Which is why I believe championship football is the aim.

Wether that's a walker trust directive or not is immaterial really.

[Driftpeasant]

Side note: I still have a slight slight slight 0.01% that some how Venky's will turn out to be like Mike Ashley for Newcastle. When he came in to Newcastle they were ###### finically and got relegated with Joe Kinnear (Ala Steve Kean). Look at them now. I somehow still hang on to the hope that they are trying to get our financials in order and rebuild from the bottom like Ashley did with Newcasle (Now they are a top team, low wages, great team spirit and quite literally the opposite of when Mike Ashley took over). Newcastle fans hated him as much as we hate Venkys now but it has all turned around so I still live in that hope.

So I, too, hope that Venky's are taking the appropriate steps to run the club in a better way. If they're following the Mike Ashley playbook, they're following it play for play, down to the bit where they make the fans hate them. If indeed the hope is to get the club on a better financial footing, why not tell the fans? Why not come out and say "our expenses and wage bill are unsustainable. We have a good model for sustainability in Norwich, Blackpool, Swansea, and Wolves - yes not all of those stayed up, but they competed. So please bear with us during this rebuilding process, and we'll come out the other end better than we started." For that matter - I'm not entirely sure why Ashley didn't do that when he was in process.

It is possible Venky's are just handling this poorly - there is a lot of negative reaction to them from the fans, and it's possible they've decided to shut us out as a result. I think that's short-sighted, since their revenue stream is largely predicated on our existence, but hurt feelings do occur over lesser things. I would hope they'd be more transparent in their business operations - but they've never had to be transparent in the chicken hatchery, so I can see how they wouldn't have that mentality now.

I think that since Venky's bought Rovers in part as an advertising asset, and that's failed, they'll just want to get out of Rovers at net even or minimal loss. Norwich and Swansea aren't exactly setting the international media on fire for being well run and midtable...

[den]

So continuing with a useless manager like Kean, paying agents a ransom, getting rid of JW, TF and virtually every other member of staff who have run this club superbly well on a shoestring for many a year is all part of running the club in a better way? Good job they're not trying to destroy it then.

[Driftpeasant]

Buy it back? Do you see that happening Stuart?

No, simply because they recognise that in today's game a club the size of rovers cannot continue to dine at the top table being run the way it was for much longer.

The backlash for the Walkers if they took this course of action would be hard and in their doorstep too.

Venkys fit the bill quite nicely to achieve the job being so far removed from rovers and Lancashire.

It's a conspiracy theory of mine, I'm not suggesting it is the case but its quite feasible

It might explain the cheap price tag they got the club for too. The cost cutting and offloading of our premier league earners as stated in the article above could be viewed as a damage limitation effort as we move towards what might be seen as our correct status.

Just a thought.

Must admit that like Rovers1993 I kind of harbour hopes venkys are getting the ship in order so that they can take the club forward. Can't help but feel I'll be disappointed though, let's face it to continue with Kean is just jeopardising the league status. Which is why I believe championship football is the aim.

Wether that's a walker trust directive or not is immaterial really.

Okay, so, two things:

1) Rovers (and indeed no team) have a "correct status". The beauty of promotion and relegation is that teams can rise to any height they want to provided they're competently run and managed. Yes, Rovers have less fans and market share than, say, Man U, but we're in the same division, and, with proper management, can stay there. There may be a team down in Tier 7 today that can, with due care and time, rise to the Premier League. If you feel teams have a "proper" place, then go look at the NFL or MLB or the NBA where teams go and live in a one tier league - and then start applying that to English football using whatever criteria you choose. I assure you that it would be a much less interesting and compelling game as a result.

2) The WalkerTrust were up front about not wanting to use money from the rest of the business portfolio to fund a football team. Uncle Jack was the one who loved Rovers - when he went, Rovers were just another business unit in the WalkerTrust portfolio - albeit one with a specific funding mandate in Jack's will. If it weren't for that they'd have gotten no money at all, and my theory of sale would have happened 10 years ago. There's no conspiracy here - the Trust didn't want profit to fund a football club, the same way Venky's don't want to use profit to prop up a football club. There's nothing secret about this...

So continuing with a useless manager like Kean, paying agents a ransom, getting rid of JW, TF and virtually every other member of staff who have run this club superbly well on a shoestring for many a year is all part of running the club in a better way? Good job they're not trying to destroy it then.

They haven't sacked Kean because they don't want to pay him off. They haven't overpaid an agent in the last two windows. They fired the club staff early on in their reign. I would say that, PR aside, they haven't done anything stupid aside from NOT spend money in 8-9 months. That's not to say they're doing things well, but they're not doing anything truly awful either at the moment.

[Amo]

They haven't sacked Kean because they don't want to pay him off.

Doubt that's true. More likely Kean fits the bill where Venky's modus operandi is concerned.

And if it was true, they're the ones who improved his contract five months ago for the great job he was doing.

They haven't overpaid an agent in the last two windows. They fired the club staff early on in their reign. I would say that, PR aside, they haven't done anything stupid aside from NOT spend money in 8-9 months. That's not to say they're doing things well, but they're not doing anything truly awful either at the moment.

Aside from... keeping Kean at the club, treating fans with contempt, obviating the role of CEO, and budgeting the team selection during a relegation battle... No. They haven't put a foot wrong.

[roverandout]

another poster, dp, who is talking bullocks!!!

[Driftpeasant]

another poster, dp, who is talking bullocks!!!

Why do you think I'm incorrect? Alternately, where do you get that I'm speaking about livestock?

[roverandout]

i was just reffering to your point about venkys tenure not being that bad, they have made alot of bad mistakes, the biggest being buying the club!!