England

[M_B]

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

If you are going to caveat the quarter final exit under Southgate with numerous reasons and excuses, could have gone either way, tight game, eventual finalist etc. Sven lost to Brazil who won the tournament and Portugal twice in very tight games decided on penalty with questionable refereeing decisions. 

Southgate's overall tournament record is good. Benefitted by considerable luck in terms of draws, but took advantage of that luck with an impressively consistent ability to overcome the lesser nations in knockout games, then came up short against stronger teams or even ones like Italy and Croatia who you wouldnt have down as the elite.

Its difficult to compare tournament on tournament though. Tuchel has his work cut out because although he is a better manager, the squad is considerably weaker now.

Did Southgate have bad luck having to play the teams he lost to, or did the luck only stretch to having good luck playing the teams he beat? 

[roversfan99]

13 minutes ago, M_B said:

Did Southgate have bad luck having to play the teams he lost to, or did the luck only stretch to having good luck playing the teams he beat? 

Its not about whether we won or lost, but the standard of opposition relevant to the stage of the tournament.

Playing France in a quarter final was bad luck. Playing Germany in the last 16 considering we presumably won the group was bad luck. All of the other knockout games I would consider to be favourable draws.

[roverandout]

4 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

I sort off agree there but Tuchel was short term appointment. I don't expect to see hm here after the World Cup, he will want back into Club Football

 

He's already said he'd consider stopping on

[M_B]

45 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Its not about whether we won or lost, but the standard of opposition relevant to the stage of the tournament.

Playing France in a quarter final was bad luck. Playing Germany in the last 16 considering we presumably won the group was bad luck. All of the other knockout games I would consider to be favourable draws.

They weren't draws, the draw was made before the tournament started, later fixtures were determined by football results,any supposed luck ended with the original draw.

 

[M_B]

23 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

So by that token then, I take it you'll be praising Tuchel to high heaven if we get knocked out at the last 8 stage of the next World Cup?

I think high heaven is a bit high for a last 8 finish don't you ?

I'll judge Tuchel the same as I did Southgate, hope he surpasses Southgate's really good record and judge him on results, I won't be using luck to argue away how he does, either way. 

[Upside Down]

7 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

If you are going to caveat the quarter final exit under Southgate with numerous reasons and excuses, could have gone either way, tight game, eventual finalist etc. Sven lost to Brazil who won the tournament and Portugal twice in very tight games decided on penalty with questionable refereeing decisions. 

Southgate's overall tournament record is good. Benefitted by considerable luck in terms of draws, but took advantage of that luck with an impressively consistent ability to overcome the lesser nations in knockout games, then came up short against stronger teams or even ones like Italy and Croatia who you wouldnt have down as the elite.

Its difficult to compare tournament on tournament though. Tuchel has his work cut out because although he is a better manager, the squad is considerably weaker now.

A perfect summary of the whole situation.

[Upside Down]

29 minutes ago, M_B said:

I think high heaven is a bit high for a last 8 finish don't you ?

I'll judge Tuchel the same as I did Southgate, hope he surpasses Southgate's really good record and judge him on results, I won't be using luck to argue away how he does, either way. 

We know that, you've demonstrated time and time again that you don't understand what it is.

[roversfan99]

49 minutes ago, M_B said:

They weren't draws, the draw was made before the tournament started, later fixtures were determined by football results,any supposed luck ended with the original draw.

 

Either way though, it was totally out of England's control. So if England get weaker opposition as a result of games in which they had no bearing on, then it is fortunate.

36 minutes ago, M_B said:

I think high heaven is a bit high for a last 8 finish don't you ?

I'll judge Tuchel the same as I did Southgate, hope he surpasses Southgate's really good record and judge him on results, I won't be using luck to argue away how he does, either way. 

Your problem is your seeing them as mutually exclusive. 

His tournament record can be good AND he could have had lots of luck in terms of fixtures, simultaneously. 

I have said his record was good and he still deserves credit for getting as far as he did and beating who he did beat even if most of the time he was favourite (at times considerably) to do so.

[M_B]

18 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Either way though, it was totally out of England's control. So if England get weaker opposition as a result of games in which they had no bearing on, then it is fortunate.

Your problem is your seeing them as mutually exclusive. 

His tournament record can be good AND he could have had lots of luck in terms of fixtures, simultaneously. 

I have said his record was good and he still deserves credit for getting as far as he did and beating who he did beat even if most of the time he was favourite (at times considerably) to do so.

Your problem is

a, even entertaining the concept of luck, when every subsequent fixture is determined by results.

B, having used the concept of luck (which in this case is ridiculous), you're only applying it to having good luck, never once have you entertained he might have had bad luck. The whole thing is ridiculous. I just hope Tuchel employs a Witch Doctor to help with the training. 

[roversfan99]

23 minutes ago, M_B said:

Your problem is

a, even entertaining the concept of luck, when every subsequent fixture is determined by results.

B, having used the concept of luck (which in this case is ridiculous), you're only applying it to having good luck, never once have you entertained he might have had bad luck. The whole thing is ridiculous. I just hope Tuchel employs a Witch Doctor to help with the training. 

a) determined by results that we didnt control! You take the Millwall comparison that was pointed out. It was results that led to them playing lower league opposition all the way to the FA cup final. Whether the draw was pre determined is irrelevant.

b) you asked me earlier if it applies both ways and I literally said that Germany in the last 16 after winning our group and also France as early as the quarters were both examples of bad luck.

[Dreams of 1995]

1 minute ago, roversfan99 said:

a) determined by results that we didnt control!

It is the same with every international manager because they all play by the same rules (we will ignore seeding and group rankings as it doesn’t suit the narrative). So by this token unless that nation has beat sides that roversfan99 consider elite their manager has been lucky

Took a while to get there I suppose 

[roversfan99]

1 minute ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

It is the same with every international manager because they all play by the same rules (we will ignore seeding and group rankings as it doesn’t suit the narrative). So by this token unless that nation has beat sides that roversfan99 consider elite their manager has been lucky

Took a while to get there I suppose 

Im talking about from the quarters onwards. Before that, winning your group is a big factor that is in your control.

A quarter final against Sweden and a semi final against Croatia.

A quarter final of Ukraine, a semi final against Denmark and a final against Italy.

A quarter final against Switzerland and a semi final against Holland.

The exception was a quarter final against France. Overall, they are runs to the final through no control of our own that we would have absolutely taken before the draw was made.

One thing I keep saying is you can be fortunate with the uncontrollables ie the fixtures but also still consider it an achievement. I said that Southgate did well and has a good tournament record, consistently beating decent/good but not great teams in knockout football is still impressive. But as soon as you mention the word luck, it seems to touch a nerve and people see it as an attempt to totally discredit anything that Southgate has done.

The whole point stems from comparing different managers. Sven underachieved, Southgate didnt, but you arent comparing like for like when we had quarter finals against Brazil and Portugal x 2 under him.

[M_B]

As ridiculous as it is, this "theory" has to be applied to every match of every tournament that has ever been played, ie not just England .

According to this "theory ", one side has been lucky in every match which has ever been played throughout history .

That's how mental it is. 

Edited 10 hours ago by M_B

[Upside Down]

It's mental that grown adults would proudly and publicly proclaim that they do not understand the most basic concept of luck and chance.

[RevidgeBlue]

7 hours ago, M_B said:

As ridiculous as it is, this "theory" has to be applied to every match of every tournament that has ever been played, ie not just England .

According to this "theory ", one side has been lucky in every match which has ever been played throughout history .

That's how mental it is. 

When you're in a hole stop digging.

The only thing we can control is whether or not we reach a particular stage of any competition by beating whoever is in front of us.

We have no control whatsoever over who we play. if we end up with an easier game at any particular stage than we would normally have expected because another fancied team hasn't performed and the draw hasnt panned out as expected, then most people would describe that as an element of (good) luck. If we meet a particularly strong team earlier than expected through no fault of our own then most people would describe that as being slightly unlucky with the draw.

RF 99 has described it very well above. I think most people would describe draws over the years against Sweden, Croatia, Denmark, Switzerland, and Ukraine as extremely favourable. Italy were far from the strongest side at the time in 2020 and in the last Euros we were in a side of the draw which meant we avoided Spain or France until the Final. We also avoided Germany because they unexpectedly lost to Switzerland.

You still have to win the games whoever you play, but to claim there isn't an element of luck involved at times is ridiculous.

 

[Mattyblue]

Just a throwaway (and plain obvious comment a year ago, maybe by me, can’t remember now) about how England have had the rub of the green a bit (true), but so what, it’s tournament football, you can only beat what’s put in front of you (also true) and folk are still disputing it, as, well, you can’t ever un-paint yourself out of a corner on an anonymous message board, that would never do, so double down!

Classic brfcs 😅

[K-Hod]

Not sure why this is causing so much confusion, but how I see it: 

England did well to get as far as we did in tournaments under Southgate.

Some of those draws were lucky, but you can only beat what’s in front of you.

It isn’t disrespectful to Southgate to highlight the fact he didn’t win a trophy, it’s just purely factual.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Where Southgate got lucky was getting the job in the first place.