[Archived] Reasons for Optimism

[Mattyblue]

I suppose that fans get completely wrapped up in their own clubs to realise what's going on elsewhere.

Looking at Wolves, Wigan and the promoted clubs to start with there isn't much quality and/or improvement in their squads.

We do have some talented young players and some experienced pros. However we also have a poor forward line (at present) and most importantly we have Steve Kean- who lets face it struggles to put out a side that wins football matches- and that is the crux of the matter.

That was fairly positive... right?

[tony gale's mic]

It matters not TGM, if that 40m wasn't coming this season we'd have lost most of our first team squad, so thats a positive surely.

Not really Gav, that £40m was always going to come. There's no way we can be in this league and not get that £40m. So using it as a separate point to us being in the Premier League is really scraping the barrel.

It's like waking up in the morning and being thankful there's still oxygen in the atmosphere.

[grizfoot]

Like I said before I'd love us to spend lots of money right now. But hopefully Venkys are doing the right thing in biding their time and waiting until the right players become available at the right time. I'll still stand by the point we've got a much better record of buying players on the cheap then with excpensive signing. Buying players for cheap also enables you to buy more players because the risk is lower. Buying a couple of big signing is a huge risk especially if players from abroad, if the both don't hit the ground running your in hue trouble because you've used all your budget up. Buying more players at a lower price is the way to go.

For every Andy Cole there's a Corrado Grabbi or Kevin Davies. True we have spent money well sometimes but I still stand by he fact the best deals we've done over recent times have been one at lower prices. Besides we can't compete with the sepdnign power of the likes of Chelsea & Man City, ect. so if a player is that good one of the "bigger" clubs will snap them up. We are in the secondary bracket if you like and there's a lot of potential players here to be signed, hedging your bets and buying a number at reasonable prices seem the sensible way to go. We've got Formica, Rochina & Goodwille (imminent hopefully). I'd be quite happy if we signed another few players for around the £2m-£5m mark than if we went out and splashed it all on one player.

[grizfoot]

You mention Arsenal as the way to go - but Arsenal watch the youngsters they want, then pay the money and Arsenal pay a lot of money for those lads. They don't take a view that he's the best kid we've seen this year, but if we can't get him cheap, then we don't want him. Which is what I'm saying and is different to what you're saying.

Put it this way. We need a big target man. Let's say for the sake of argument that Crouch became available and Kean wanted him. Spurs will do a deal at £10m, but Kean only values him at £8m. Rovers have done their summer business and have £12m profit on their dealings so far. Why shouldn't rovers pay £10m? Wouldn't it be crazy in the scenario to walk away from the deal - and where would that get us?

Depends on the situation, if there's no one else available or time is running out in the transfer window then there's situations where buying slightly over the odds for a player is the right thing to do, although in the fact your figure of valuation will increase because of the circumstance and the £12m may become a fair price. But the general rule of thumb I would approach is only sign players where you think the transfer fee is equal or below the valuation of a player.

True Arsenal do spend a lot of money in bringing in youth players but the benefits far exceed the cost. Bringing in young enable you to educate them and condition them to the style of the club and as a result they'll hopefully become much better players. Don't know the exact figures but I'm guessing Wenger has received as much if not more in transfer fees than he has paid out in his time in charge at Arsenal. Which is quite remarkable in itself I find. Funnily whenever he's signed "big money" players it as often not worked out.

[den]

True Arsenal do spend a lot of money in bringing in youth players but the benefits far exceed the cost. Bringing in young enable you to educate them and condition them to the style of the club and as a result they'll hopefully become much better players. Don't know the exact figures but I'm guessing Wenger has received as much if not more in transfer fees than he has paid out in his time in charge at Arsenal. Which is quite remarkable in itself I find. Funnily whenever he's signed "big money" players it as often not worked out.

I don't know where you're going here Grizfoot. You mentioned Arsenal. I'm saying that they sign some/many of the best young players in the world. They don't get these lads in by putting a value on them and wanting them cheaper.

If the top clubs want a player, they have the money and he's available, they pay the price. That's how all clubs should operate IMO. I can't go along with the argument that paying big money [whatever that is] doesn't bring success.

[rog of the rovers]

Players think they can make top 10, they all sound optimistic.

Got me thinking about the last time we broke the top 10 and the team that achieved it, compared to the team we have now.

The team that finished the season in 10th position just two seasons ago (2009/10)

Appearances/Goals in brackets

Bold - still with club

GK - Robinson (35) Brown (3)

DF - Jacobsen (13), Samba (30/4), Givet (34/2), Nelsen (28/4), Olsson (21/1), Salgado (21), Jones (9), Chimbonda (24/1), Warnock (1)

MID - Emerton (24), Dunn (23/9), Grella (15), Pedersen (33/3), N'Zonzi (33/2), Reid (4), Andrews (32/1), Diouf (26/3)

ATT - Roberts (29/5), Kalinic (26/2), Hoilett (23), Di Santo (22/1), McCarthy (14/1)

Is the current squad better than this one?

I think we had decent luck in the 09/10 season (caught Arsenal and Villa at the right times, Olssons dive went our way ) , that luck seemed to desert us last year.

Missed points?

Holden's last minute winner at Bolton (Dropped 1 point)

Hurelho Gomes' man of the match performance at Ewood (Dropped 1/3 points)

Dodgy penalty decision at Craven Cottage (Dropped 1 point)

Charlie Adam's wonderstrike at home to Blackpool, then hitting the post twice before a last minute equaliser (Dropped 2 points)

Lee Bowyer was offside for Birmingham's goal at Ewood (Dropped 2 points)

Man City scoring against the run of play after Rovers had hit bar, and Hart made a wonder save (Dropped 1 point)

Every other match I felt we were soundly beaten, a draw was the right result or we deserved the victory

On other days, results could have gone for us, add those 8/10 points to our total and we would have finished 8th.

If we get a bit of luck and avoid long term injuries we're certainly good enough to stay in the division and who knows?

"I do not want a good general, I want a lucky one." - Napoleon

KEEP THE FAITH.

[Mattyblue]

Fair points rog, but you can't start banging on about 'luck'.

Look at the other side of it:

Samba pulled down a Sunderland player- they missed the pen.

Tim Howard dropped the ball at Kalinic's feet

Hart gave Kalinic an open goal at City.

Things happen for and against you throughout he season and you finish where you deserve to.

[Gav]

Not really Gav, that £40m was always going to come. There's no way we can be in this league and not get that £40m. So using it as a separate point to us being in the Premier League is really scraping the barrel.

It's like waking up in the morning and being thankful there's still oxygen in the atmosphere.

We very nearly went down though TGM, so still having the 40m is a reason to be optimistic in my book.

As for the oxygen comment, that’s nonsense, we’ll always have oxygen, we’re not guaranteed to have premiership status and 40m

[den]

I think we had decent luck in the 09/10 season (caught Arsenal and Villa at the right times, Olssons dive went our way ) , that luck seemed to desert us last year.

Lucky depending on who the manager was Rog?

Two games at the end of last season - wolves away and Man Utd at home. Both sides stopped attacking us and settled for what they had, when we were on the ropes - how lucky were we then?

[john.leigh]

eh up lad, it's grim up north -- and it's not just the weather we're talking about.

[Gav]

Lucky depending on who the manager was Rog?

Two games at the end of last season - wolves away and Man Utd at home. Both sides stopped attacking us and settled for what they had, when we were on the ropes - how lucky were we then?

Isn't this a thread about reasons to be optimistic?

Come on den you miserable sod, even you can come up with one, instead of trying to discredit the glass half full brigade.

Go on just one, I dare you

[den]

Isn't this a thread about reasons to be optimistic?

Come on den you miserable sod, even you can come up with one, instead of trying to discredit the glass half full brigade.

Go on just one, I dare you

I was only putting this lucky with Sam, unlucky with Kean tripe to bed Gav.

Right, one reason for optimism eh?

hmmmmm... We still have chance to strengthen the squad. How's that?

That should get a few + points.

[joey_big_nose]

Im pretty optimistic to be honest. We ended last season well, Hoilett has turned in one season from being a fringe player to geniuinely top class, Nzonzi and Olsson have really come on, Rochina and Formica look like they will make an impression, like the look of Goodwillie, Petrovic and Vierinha.

My favourite part of football is seeing young players develop, so I am looking forward to that.

If we lose Samba though my mood could darken....

[Gav]

I was only putting this lucky with Sam, unlucky with Kean tripe to bed Gav.

Right, one reason for optimism eh?

hmmmmm... We still have chance to strengthen the squad. How's that?

That should get a few + points.

I've given you a +1 for that den

[joey_big_nose]

When you buy 15-25 cheap players like we have in the last 10 years the law of averages would suggest a few of them would come good. Far more of the cheapos we've brought in have turned out to be complete w*nk than decent though. For every Chris Samba there's plenty more Basturks, Goulons and Linganzis.

1) iT'S till a lot better than blowing 4m+ on a player who turns out to be rubbish - Grella, Grabbi, Ferguson etc.

2) I think the failure/success rate for our >4m players and <4m players is about the same.

[greco]

Ok so I know that Rovers supporters can be some of the most pessimistic in the country [/size]but I'm sure there are others, like me ,that are still excited and optimistic for the coming season.

Why am I excited? I'm excited to see what Rochina and Formica can do, and I want to see a full season of Junior.

What's your reason to be optimistic for the season?

So you start out your thread about optimism, by critisizing your fellow fans thats not optimistic, is it?

I dont really know what to be optimistic about, i dont really care for a specific individual, but the team and club as a whole.

yes now i got it, im looking forward to see some young players coming through. Hopefully they have the class and talent to do good.

[tony gale's mic]

We very nearly went down though TGM, so still having the 40m is a reason to be optimistic in my book.

As for the oxygen comment, that’s nonsense, we’ll always have oxygen, we’re not guaranteed to have premiership status and 40m

We very nearly went down from being a consistent top 10 club. The owners, behind the scenes staff and manager that nearly took us down are still here whilst the ones that kept us stable and in the upper reaches of the league have all left.

Even with these two signings the playing squad is at best no stronger and at worst has lost a crucial player in Jones who we've not really replaced.

And the oxygen comment isn't nonsense. As long as we're a Premiership club we'll always get that £40m and that £40m will always disappear into the players pockets. They're not two separate reasons they're one and the same thing.

[greco]

Ok so I know that Rovers supporters can be some of the most pessimistic in the country [/size]but I'm sure there are others, like me ,that are still excited and optimistic for the coming season.

Why am I excited? I'm excited to see what Rochina and Formica can do, and I want to see a full season of Junior.

What's your reason to be optimistic for the season?

So you start out your thread about optimism, by critisizing your fellow fans thats not optimistic, is it? (just kidding)

I dont really know what to be optimistic about, i dont really care for a specific individual, but the team and club as a whole.

yes now i got it, im looking forward to see some young players coming through. Hopefully they have the class and talent to do good. Always enjoyfull to see young players step up, quite exciting imo

[Gav]

We very nearly went down from being a consistent top 10 club. The owners, behind the scenes staff and manager that nearly took us down are still here whilst the ones that kept us stable and in the upper reaches of the league have all left.

Even with these two signings the playing squad is at best no stronger and at worst has lost a crucial player in Jones who we've not really replaced.

And the oxygen comment isn't nonsense. As long as we're a Premiership club we'll always get that £40m and that £40m will always disappear into the players pockets. They're not two separate reasons they're one and the same thing.

You'd have an argument in an empty room TGM this is an optimistic thread, so sod off

[roverandout]

reasons to be optimistic...erm..ooh...erm..er

reasons to be pesimistic...i will need a day write this.

[rebelmswar]

I have been very pessimistic about quite a lot lately. I feel the club is being handled very poorly and we are led by a plastic man.

However, I can not change any of that.

So, I feel that going on and on about the same old gripes, even when the reasons for gripping are new - such as Keans' waffle yesterday. are counterproductive to the harmony of my chi.

Henceforth I will be sitting on a pillow, cross-legged and eating Doritos.

That I can control.

I am optimistic that the players we have will try and win every game.

I am optimistic that we are still a functioning club.

I am optimistic that we all here want the same thing and even though some of us are grumps, Al, pessimists, list is too long, optimists, not so long, and range from all views of the political, ethnic, and sexual, chaddy, demographic - we all have a passion for the club that can not be matched.

That we can get so fired up about trivial matters prove that we care more for the club than any owner ever could.

[True Blue & White]

2) I think the failure/success rate for our >4m players and <4m players is about the same.

Really?

Here's a list of every player we have bought in the last ten years (2001 onward), no loans just permanent signings. The first list is for players sub £4m the small list at the bottom are players bought in for more than £4m...

Benjani

Rochina

Formica*

Goulon

Van Heerden

Lars Jacobsen

Salgado

Linganzi

N'Zonzi

Givet*

Chimbonda

Yildirim

K.Andrews

P.Robinson*

Grella*

E.H.Diouf

Bunn

Fowler

G.Nielsen

Rigters

Vogel

Jeffers

J.Brown

Khizanishvili

Samba

Berner

Roberts*

McCarthy

Ooijer

Warnock

Dunn

Henchoz

Nonda

Kuqi

Bentley

Peter

de Pedro

Djorkaeff

Matteo

Nelsen

Mokoena

Savage*

Pedersen

Dickov

Leonard

M.Gray

B.Ferguson

S.Reid

Emerton

Derbyshire

Enckleman

Amoruso

Stead

Gresko

Sukur

Pelzer

Yorke

D.Thompson

Todd

Greer

Nils-Eric Johansson

Unsal

Tugay

A.Miller

------

Kalinic

Santa Cruz

Bellamy

A.Cole

Grabbi

* = Player was bought for at least £3.5m

So at £4m, I'd say there is a 3 in 5 (60%) chance of getting a successful player, and that is being harsh on Kalinic who has never been played in a system which suits him but anyways.

For players less than four mil' well I won't count Formica/Rochina as it's too early to tell but I counted 18-20 of the rest being good signings in the sense they improved the squad and did well for Rovers in their time here with the rest being awful at worst and a squad filler at best. So that's less than a 1 in 3 chance of buying a successful player for less than £4m (28-31%).

If you asked what the difference was between spending £3.5m on a player and less the gap between the chances widens even further. This is of course quite subjective but you have to go a long way to argue that on average spending less on players is more, or just as, likely to yield positive results.

[47er]

This messageboard has got a serious grumpy old men syndrome, there's plenty to look forward to and to be optimistic about. By all means moan about the weather or about your job but isn't football suppose to be for the large part an enjoyable experience.

I look forward to the prospect of Rovers playing some good attacking football under the leadership of Kean which we saw in flashes last season. The hopeful further development of our good set of young players in Olsson, Holiett, Nzonzi, Rochina & Formica.

Optimstic about the fact the owners haven't gone silly and paid over the odds for average players. Buying players at equal or below their true value is surely the only thing to do from a business point of view.

Hoilett has signed has he? Didn't know that.Jones has left by the way (both of them), Samba will leave and Hoilett? Thats our 4 best out-field players of last season.

Optimism-------you're having a laugh.

[jim mk2]

The England cricket team have given me plenty of cheer so far this summer ..... with hopefully more to come. Lancashire are doing well too. In fact, I want the cricket season to keep on going. Football, and Rovers in particular, makes me depressed. Going back to my potting shed now.

[Gav]

The England cricket team have given me plenty of cheer so far this summer ..... with hopefully more to come. Lancashire are doing well too.

Here here