Rovers…Are We Any Good ?

[Exiled_Rover]

1 hour ago, dingles staying down 4ever said:

The division is still too close for us to tell if we are in a false position at present plus we've played a game more than most. Improvements have been made since the start of the season but lets see where we after Christmas and see if Tony has taken his death spiral with him.

We're 3rd regardless of how teams do with that extra game they have on us.

[Armchair supporter supremo]

Reading a lot of the comments on here i feel that some wish our league position wasn't so good, so they can have a right good whinge and get on JDTs case, must just be frustrating for them to see us looking so strong in the league at this stage

 

The football under Allardyce was absolute dog shite, we didn't even try to play football, but I bet those waiting to criticise Tomasson where the ones happy to watch fat sams garbage as long as it got just enough points to keep us up

Edited October 23, 2022 by Armchair supporter supremo

[Mattyblue]

It really wasn’t, especially at Ewood.

[Exiled_Rover]

2 hours ago, The Hypnotic said:

New signings have worked out beautifully, the youth team graduates have been impressive, and some players have really kicked on - Hedges especially has been like a new signing, but Pickering also, and Dolan has been a bit more productive as well. Some players have gone backwards - Travis and Buckley no longer seem to be the bright future of our club and most would prefer Morton and Wharton over them now but they are young and still developing.

The inconsistency may settle down as JDT gets to know this league, the opposition, and our strengths and weaknesses, and young players mature and develop their game.

I'd argue the biggest improvement has come from Gallagher - he now looks like a good Championship CF. He's scored 1 in 3, which is huge progress and as we all know goals win games - we've desperately needed another consistent goalscorer in this team for games like yesterday when Brereton-Diaz is off the boil.

Travis has been fine, although his lack of passing ability has been exposed in this system and Buckley is currently being taught a lesson - fingers crossed the lesson takes as he's a talented player.

To me the fact that we're sat 2nd considering the situation the club was in during the summer (5 week search for a manager AFTER Mowbray eventually walked, 10 players with first team minutes leaving for free) is dreamland stuff. Game to game you can see the system and the style of play JDT and his coaching staff are drilling into the team taking positive effect e.g. the A. Wharton goal came from playing it out of the back and we're MUCH harder to score against now.

 

So are we a good team? The table suggests we are. We're heavily reliant on a handful of key players staying fit (Kaminsky and Brereton-Diaz being the two irreplaceable ones), but if we continue to progress I don't see why we can't be in the Playoffs at the end of the season. That would be ahead of schedule for JDT too as he knew this was a massive rebuilding project. 

[Exiled_Rover]

10 minutes ago, Armchair supporter supremo said:

Reading a lot of the comments on here i feel that some wish our league position wasn't so good, so they can have a right good whinge and get on JDTs case, must just be frustrating for them to see us looking so strong in the league at this stage

 

The football under Allardyce was absolute dog shite, we didn't even try to play football, but I bet those waiting to criticise Tomasson where the ones happy to watch fat sams garbage as long as it got just enough points to keep us up

The football Birmingham played when their #10 came on yesterday is what you saw at Ewood under Allardyce - it's dire to watch, but hugely effective. Our back 3 are all over 6' and have dominated aerially for the last couple of games. Jutkiewicz came on and suddenly every cross into the box was filled with danger and every lump forward resulted in a knock down.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

32 minutes ago, roverandout said:

I think if we make the playoffs this season it will be a miracle.  Not saying we can't do it just it will be an immense achievement.  We have a young squad wanting to play for a very likeable manager.  I was sceptical about hyam and brittain in the summer but they've both Been magnificent.  Bringing through the likes of Adam Wharton and other youth has to be given great credit to jdt. I finally believe we are on the right track.  If we can keep plucking these young players from our academy then we will have an excellent side in a couple of years. January is huge though.  I really believe jdt will want to strengthen unlike Mowbray who just wanted status quo. We still need another forward and a decent backup keeper 

The thing is you can’t keep players for a couple of years unless you are well run at the top. We aren’t.

[ossyian]

2 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

What I would say is we have manoeuvred ourselves into a very handy position. 

Remember we hadn’t even had our 7-0 hammering from Fulham yet this time last season which left us plodding away in mid table. The charge only getting going with the Sheff Utd win in early November.

So there’s every chance of a play off berth… especially if there is some backing in January (which surely there must be as it was TM himself that decided not to spend according to a few on here with the owners poised with the cheque book).
 

Sheff Utd was our 17th game and left us on 26 points. More games played to date because of WC

[Mattyblue]

I get that, but going into November we didn’t particularly expect the season to go anywhere, now we are in the mix already.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 hours ago, Exiled_Rover said:

I'd argue the biggest improvement has come from Gallagher - he now looks like a good Championship CF. He's scored 1 in 3, which is huge progress and as we all know goals win games - we've desperately needed another consistent goalscorer in this team for games like yesterday when Brereton-Diaz is off the boil.

Travis has been fine, although his lack of passing ability has been exposed in this system and Buckley is currently being taught a lesson - fingers crossed the lesson takes as he's a talented player.

To me the fact that we're sat 2nd considering the situation the club was in during the summer (5 week search for a manager AFTER Mowbray eventually walked, 10 players with first team minutes leaving for free) is dreamland stuff. Game to game you can see the system and the style of play JDT and his coaching staff are drilling into the team taking positive effect e.g. the A. Wharton goal came from playing it out of the back and we're MUCH harder to score against now.

 

So are we a good team? The table suggests we are. We're heavily reliant on a handful of key players staying fit (Kaminsky and Brereton-Diaz being the two irreplaceable ones), but if we continue to progress I don't see why we can't be in the Playoffs at the end of the season. That would be ahead of schedule for JDT too as he knew this was a massive rebuilding project. 

Maybe JDT has given Gally some one to one coaching. After all he’ll know a lot more about playing up front than Mowbray or Venus.

[Armchair supporter supremo]

2 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

It really wasn’t, especially at Ewood.

In his final 6 - 12 months it really really was! 

It was literally just Robinson hoofing it every chance he got, it was ridiculous how predictable we'd become

[Mattyblue]

We’ve been round this buoy about a thousand times on here. Both sides will never agree, but he had us a comfortable PL side with an ever decreasing budget. Top manager.

[Gav]

5 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

We’ve been round this buoy about a thousand times on here. Both sides will never agree, but he had us a comfortable PL side with an ever decreasing budget. Top manager.

Not wanting to get into an old debate, but he robbed the club/fans of seeing better players because he was in the pockets of agents and allegedly taking cuts from player sales, the player pool was reduced to feather his own nest.

He was far from a top a manager for those reasons alone and got his comeuppance being fired from England and nationally humiliated.

[Mattyblue]

He did a very good job for Blackburn Rovers at a time when the Walkers had cut the purse strings.

I’m not particularly arsed about what’s gone on elsewhere.

[jim mk2]

I'm rubbing my eyes at the moment - I can't believe we're in the top 2 - because I haven't seen us win a game yet (warning: I'm thinking of going to the Coventry match) and witnessed some truly dire performances as bad as anything under Mowbray

Yet here we are sitting pretty in the league, winning games we should be losing so Tomasson must have something going for him - maybe he's just lucky as I mentioned before? It's a long old season though and I want to see some good signings in January (unlike last year) to show that we really are committed to a promotion push 

On Allardyce, the man was a very good Premier League manager for us and my gut, sick feeling in my stomach when he was sacked was that it was the worst possible move the new owners could make and that it would be the end of us as a top flight club.

It was

 

 

 

[Displaced Rover]

I know a lot of people don't love xG but I was taking a look at Championship stats through the season so far.

Much like last year, our actual for and against goals are performing far beyond expected. Like last year are the wheels going to come off spectacularly?

23rd for xG (0.96)

8th (highest) for xGA (1.5)

If we're anywhere near the mix for top 6 come April/May I think we will have had a fantastic season.

[Upside Down]

3 minutes ago, Displaced Rover said:

I know a lot of people don't love xG but I was taking a look at Championship stats through the season so far.

Much like last year, our actual for and against goals are performing far beyond expected. Like last year are the wheels going to come off spectacularly?

23rd for xG (0.96)

8th (highest) for xGA (1.5)

If we're anywhere near the mix for top 6 come April/May I think we will have had a fantastic season.

All that proves is that xg is a load of bollocks. 

Against Sunderland they had a higher expected goals than us but lost 2-0. Its total bollocks.

The only time I would expect a goal to be scored is if Shearer had just put the ball down on the penalty spot.

[Displaced Rover]

31 minutes ago, Upside Down said:

All that proves is that xg is a load of bollocks. 

Against Sunderland they had a higher expected goals than us but lost 2-0. Its total bollocks.

The only time I would expect a goal to be scored is if Shearer had just put the ball down on the penalty spot.

It tells you a lot about the quality of chances created. You can call it bollocks all you like but we're not creating a lot of super clear chances. Against Sunderland for example, Diaz bangs one in from 20 yards, not sustainable to be winning games solely on the back of goals like that (especially when he's gone post January)

[Herbie6590]

1 hour ago, Displaced Rover said:

It tells you a lot about the quality of chances created. You can call it bollocks all you like but we're not creating a lot of super clear chances. Against Sunderland for example, Diaz bangs one in from 20 yards, not sustainable to be winning games solely on the back of goals like that (especially when he's gone post January)

WARNING ANALOGY ALERT

I liken xG to a dashboard that tells you how the car is driving. 

I get roughly say, 40-45mpg on a motorway run out of my car. On my way over the Pennines to Ewood, my mpg builds slowly as I leave the city & hit the M1. Then as I get to Leeds it tumbles until I’m over the hills past Huddersfield where it climbs again majestically as I glide down to Oldham.
My trip computer MPG isn’t bollocks…it indicates that at certain points I’m performing better than expected and other times worse. My decision on when to fill up is influenced by how quickly I’m using my fuel up, historical experience of the journey and range left.

I am fully aware that when I’m gliding down from Huddersfield to Oldham and clocking 70mpg that it isn’t going to last and at some point, I will regress to the mean of 40-45mpg.

Similarly, I fully anticipate Rovers to regress to the mean if these xG trends continue. It’s just that our sample size isn’t big enough yet…

Now diarise this post for the end of May 😉
 

 

[DavidMailsTightPerm]

It was interesting to hear commentators on Radio Lancs say recently, how they have seen few Championship sides that have put in a 90 minute performance - and that can definitely be leveled at Rovers.

What I find difficult to judge - especially in the last two matches - how much of our second half struggles are down to us just sitting back on our lead, hoping to hit on the break and conserve energy - or how much is down to the opposition stepping up and us struggling to cope. 

Over the last few games JDT seems to have decided on a preferred formation - 5-3-2 - which seems to suit players at his disposal.

We do lack depth up front - and I do fear if either BBD (ESPECIALLY BBD) or Gallagher were out for an extended period.

So much will decide on the World Cup break and January transfer window (especially if we get a half decent offer for BBD).

Are we any good - jury is out for me - has JDT brought the club closer together, and by promoting youth helped fans to reconnect with the team - do I see a team pattern and general approach - a definite yes. 

[roversfan99]

xG implies that had Brereton skied that shot against Sunderland, had Travis mishit his shot v QPR etc, that the games would have followed the exact same pattern that they did. As it is, we would likely have tried to attack more and the whole game would be totally different.

You can't objectify the quality of a chance, but even if you could, expecting xG to naturally fall in line with results over a season would assume that every team has the same level of strikers getting those chances, one of ours is as ruthless as any striker. It seemingly is in vogue with pundits and in particular podcast makers who rely on xG figures because they can't possibly be otherwise expected to watch every game of every team.

Back on topic and I do think that the level of performance has not been high at all and not befitting of the results. The supposed style of high press and constantly fluidity has not transpired. That being said, under Tomasson we have been very good at seeing out victories. One weakness is that when we go a goal down, we often roll over and he has struggled to change things to get us back into games, not aided IMO by favouring athletic players off the bench over the likes of Markanday and in particular Dack.

[Herbie6590]

5 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

xG implies that had Brereton skied that shot against Sunderland, had Travis mishit his shot v QPR etc, that the games would have followed the exact same pattern that they did. As it is, we would likely have tried to attack more and the whole game would be totally different.

You can't objectify the quality of a chance, but even if you could, expecting xG to naturally fall in line with results over a season would assume that every team has the same level of strikers getting those chances, one of ours is as ruthless as any striker. It seemingly is in vogue with pundits and in particular podcast makers who rely on xG figures because they can't possibly be otherwise expected to watch every game of every team.

 

xG is a statistical model so it’s based around probability based upon large & representative sample sizes & within those samples you would expect to see a normal distribution curve - in other words, in *this* position x% of players shooting will score. You can therefore objectively measure the probability of a chance being converted in certain circumstances - providing your sample size is of statistical significance, which is now the case in the modern game.

Consequently, you are therefore absolutely correct to say that the fad of in-game aggregation of chances for that game only is flawed because the game unfolded in a certain way dependent upon the outcome of that chance. What it does though is represent the relative pressure & opportunities each side created. The xG of each individual chance is backed up by the database. 

I can recall in days of yore saying things like “we had 10 corners to their 1 yet lost 1-0…” - that was the 70’s equivalent of xG I guess 😉.

However - over the course of a season, you can identify whether or not a team is out performing xG & from that deduce the extent to which you are riding your luck or may be due some. This also tells you whether your strikers are any good of course…😳

Over time, it tends to even itself out - my fear right now is that we are bucking the odds and at some point a correction will occur.

#RegressionToTheMean 

[roversfan99]

9 minutes ago, Herbie6590 said:

xG is a statistical model so it’s based around probability based upon large & representative sample sizes & within those samples you would expect to see a normal distribution curve - in other words, in *this* position x% of players shooting will score. You can therefore objectively measure the probability of a chance being converted in certain circumstances - providing your sample size is of statistical significance, which is now the case in the modern game.

Consequently, you are therefore absolutely correct to say that the fad of in-game aggregation of chances for that game only is flawed because the game unfolded in a certain way dependent upon the outcome of that chance. What it does though is represent the relative pressure & opportunities each side created. The xG of each individual chance is backed up by the database. 

I can recall in days of yore saying things like “we had 10 corners to their 1 yet lost 1-0…” - that was the 70’s equivalent of xG I guess 😉.

However - over the course of a season, you can identify whether or not a team is out performing xG & from that deduce the extent to which you are riding your luck or may be due some. This also tells you whether your strikers are any good of course…😳

Over time, it tends to even itself out - my fear right now is that we are bucking the odds and at some point a correction will occur.

#RegressionToTheMean 

Last season the conclusion many took was that we had regressed to the mean as you put it regarding our xG. We had a striker who was as clinical as any in the league and our bad run coincided with his injury, leaving only attackers who were scoring less than what they would be expected to as per xG. Regression to the mean would surely depend on everyone having the same competence in finishing chances?

[Threeguy]

8 hours ago, Displaced Rover said:

It tells you a lot about the quality of chances created. You can call it bollocks all you like but we're not creating a lot of super clear chances. Against Sunderland for example, Diaz bangs one in from 20 yards, not sustainable to be winning games solely on the back of goals like that (especially when he's gone post January)

That's totally overlooking the three or four 1v1 situations that we wasted.  I also feel that we have wasted lots of good opportunities to put games to bed. Wigan (and quite a few games) - we were awful though.  It's our ball-retention that drives me mad.

In my opinion, XG stats are complete nonsense and just a rouse to get people to bet. 

Edited October 24, 2022 by Threeguy

[Herbie6590]

1 hour ago, Threeguy said:

That's totally overlooking the three or four 1v1 situations that we wasted.  I also feel that we have wasted lots of good opportunities to put games to bed. Wigan (and quite a few games) - we were awful though.  It's our ball-retention that drives me mad.

In my opinion, XG stats are complete nonsense and just a rouse to get people to bet. 

xG can only be calculated after the game so not sure how that entices betting TBH 🤔

[Herbie6590]

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:Regression to the mean would surely depend on everyone having the same competence in finishing chances?

#RegressionToTheMean League position not xG