Where will we finish?

[Nuttall is lost]

2nd?  3rd? 4th?  5th?  6th?  other?

[roverandout]

Miss out altogether 

[RevidgeBlue]

On current form outside play offs.

 

[Upside Down]

9th

[gazzaa2]

20 points from last 14 would give us 74 points. It'll either be a point or 2 more or less  needed for the play offs. If we can't achieve that it'd be an almighty collapse given it's 2 points from the last 4 games already.

We should make the play offs but then need to find form at the right time going into them. The teams in form now will have a dip.

Edited February 15, 2022 by gazzaa2

[Sparks Rover]

2nd ⚽️

[AllRoverAsia]

5th, which is way above my pre season prediction.

[JHRover]

75 points is the usual requirement for a top 6 position. We need 21 to get there.

After the Middlesbrough win on 24th January we had 52 points and needed 23 from 18 games. That is roughly 1.25 points per game over more than a third of a season to get there.

Apply that across a full season and that level of form would result in around 57 points, so enough to survive but not much more than that. Go below that 1.25, which we would need to do to fall short, and get towards 1 point a game and it is relegation level form over more than a third of the season.

Put simply a failure to finish at least 6th would be a collapse of epic proportions and it matters not what people would have took back in August. 7th or below should result in the sack.

6th or above and there is a lottery ticket which even Mowbray might land a win on. But if not we are back to square one in the summer with the annual Venky rebuild with kids and loans.

[Guest]

Over the last 7 games our average points per game (PPG) is 1.14. If that form continues we'll finish on just 70 points, not enough for 6th this year. We need to get back up above 1.3 PPG to have a chance. A win over Millwall would only see us retain around a 1.14 PPG average over a 7 game rolling period. Anything less than 3pts and our PPG drops to a measly 0.8 and below. 

We need about 6 wins & 3 draws I think for Top 6, which allows for another 5 losses. Within Millwall (H), Sheff Utd (A), Bristol City (H), Derby County (H), Reading (A), Coventry City (A), Blackpool (H), Peterborough United (A), Stoke City (H), Preston (A) and Birmingham (A) you'd like to think that 6 wins and 3 draws is perfectly plausible.

It would take our points tally to 75, and to do it we'd need to get our PPG average up to about 1.5.

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by JoeH

[alcd]

I would expect 77 points to be enough for a playoff place this season. So 6 or 7 wins and a few draws. It's more difficult than it sounds particularly if the goals dry up as they have done since Xmas. I suspect that of the current top 9, Rovers, Hudds and WBA will be the ones to miss out. 

[davulsukur]

I think we'll fall short of the play offs.

We seem to have terrible luck with injuries and under Mowbray we have always been streaky, hitting rich viens of form (normally when it's too late), followed by Barron spells. 

We aren't scoring any goals at the moment and we have been poor in some game recently. 

West Brom, Forest and Boro all pushing to get into the playoffs and I'd expect them to nudge us out over the remainder of the season. 

Mowbray is reverting to type with some odd stuff (starting Zeefuick over Nyambe (criminal decision), Hedges to right back etc.)) Which won't help.

Got to look back at January as a missed opportunity as well, failing to bring in a striker is now costing us big time with BBD out of sorts and no goals elsewhere in the team. That's no goals in 4 games now.

[Bigdoggsteel]

4th , although I haven't fully given up on 2nd. Bournemouth and QPR have their issues too..I think we need to tick along the next 3 games , getting what we can, then I feel we have another good run in us 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Bigdoggsteel

[islander200]

3rd or 4th.

We are struggling at the minute but the last 10 games on paper looks a decent run in.

The other teams in the play offs and knocking on the door of the playoffs have to play against eachother.

I fancy us to pick up 3 points v Millwall then 3 tough games Sheffield United, QPR and Fulham after that with the exception of Bournemouth we don't play anymore playoff contenders.

 

[Miker]

I said after the Luton game that we need to survive the next 7 games and that’s proving to be the case. 

If we can finish on 60 points after the next 4 we should be in okay position to get into the playoffs.

We traditionally pick up form at the end of the season and we have a reasonably easy run of games in our last 10. I’m hoping with players returning we get a return to form as well and I think we can still scrape by.

Next 4 games are vital though. We have to pick up 3 points at Millwall to stay with the pack and can’t afford to drop points to both QPR and Sheff Utd. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

I think we will beat Millwall and QPR 

[G Somerset Rover]

3 hours ago, davulsukur said:

We seem to have terrible luck with injuries and under Mowbray we have always been streaky, hitting rich viens of form (normally when it's too late), followed by Barron spells. 

Where I’m (trying to) remaining optimistic is this streaky culture that Mowbray seems to have cultivated within the club. We’ll be due our decent run soon(ish) and hopefully that’ll be enough to get us over the line. I don’t think it can come after the Fulham match in 4 games time - we need to get a win and build on it sooner than that. Saturday is the ideal time to do that. Lose or draw that and I fear we could be in for the long haul.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Gavlar Somerset Rover!

[Ossydave]

5th

Literally every team will have a rocky spell, we're in ours but hopefully it'll end soon. Luckily our fantastic run gave a bit of a buffer to allow the rocky spell without it being a complete disaster, yet anyway.

Will help to have a strong finish especially if we do end up with a play off spot.

[Silas]

1 hour ago, Miker said:

We traditionally pick up form at the end of the season....

Normally that's because the pressure is off with nothing to play for, and our game starts to flow a bit better. 

Going to be a very different scenario if we're desperately scrapping to hold onto 6th, having slipped from 2nd after a couple month's bad form/tough fixtures. 

[Mercer]

Looking at those teams currently 7th, 8th and 9th, I think 72 points will get you 6th.

This means we need 18 points from 14 games (7 home, 7 away).

Given a reasonable slice of luck with injuries, I don't see a problem especially as we aren't conceding many goals at all (think I saw somewhere we've only conceded 8 goals in 16 league games since Fulham).

Get to the play offs and then it's anyone's - we don't concede many now and we have players who can change / win games with Dack possibly well back into the mix by then.

Think Fulham (in particular) and Bournemouth are a cut above the rest, however, I'd fancy our chances, on our day, against any of the others.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mercer

[Oldgregg86]

I think we will sadly fall short. If we do manage to stay in the top 6 I think we could best anyone over three games, I’d be slightly worried about forest should we meet them but I dare to dream COYB

[Upside Down]

7 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

2nd ⚽️

 

[rigger]

21 minutes ago, Mercer said:

Looking at those teams currently 7th, 8th and 9th, I think 72 points will get you 6th.

This means we need 18 points from 14 games (7 home, 7 away).

Given a reasonable slice of luck with injuries, I don't see a problem especially as we aren't conceding many goals at all (think I saw somewhere we've only conceded 8 goals in 16 league games since Fulham).

Get to the play offs and then it's anyone's - we don't concede many now and we have players who can change / win games with Dack possibly well back into the mix by then.

Think Fulham (in particular) and Bournemouth are a cut above the rest, however, I'd fancy our chances, on our day, against any of the others.

I hope I am wrong, but I wouldn't rely on Dack being back on full form this season.

[Mercer]

4 minutes ago, rigger said:

I hope I am wrong, but I wouldn't rely on Dack being back on full form this season.

Agree, however, what an option to bring on for a last 20 or 30 minutes when you need someone to create / score a goal assuming he gets back to 80/90% by the end of the season.

[RoversTilliDie]

20 hours ago, Nuttall is lost said:

2nd?  3rd? 4th?  5th?  6th?  other?

We have taken about 11pts from the 54 so far from the top 6 clubs, from those statistics it could be touch and go if we make the play offs with the pack closing in.

[Paul Mellelieu]

For once I think Mercer is right.  We don't concede many, so always have a chance.  6th.