[Archived] Transfers Part 2

[JHRover]

Plenty of other clubs, some deemed 'bigger' than Rovers, have fallen through the trap door into League One in recent times with first class stadia and training grounds and have recovered from it. In some cases it was actually a blessing as they cleared the decks and started again from scratch. Southampton, Norwich and Leicester to name three. Others have been down and come back a short time later such as Forest, Wednesday, Wolves and Leeds.

Trouble is all those clubs were able to rely on 15,000+ gates or parachute cash, meaning their stay was always likely to be temporary and brief.

I've no doubt if we went down, cleared the decks, got new owners and did a Bolton i.e. looked likely to bounce back immediately then we'd be getting 10-15,000 a week down there, but in the more likely event the cycle of decline under Venkys continued it would merely be seized upon by Cheston as justification for further cuts across the board. The fan base would shrink to 6,000 a week as more walk away and apart from our name, history and stadium we'd have no advantage over the likes of Bristol Rovers and MK Dons. Of course under a different owner a route to recovery could be plotted and we could use our stature to attract a quality manager and decent players, but not under these crooks.

[RoverCanada]

Championship clubs (who are not getting parachute payments, so this includes us now) got a 'Premier League solidary payment' of £2.3M every year, which drops to £360k in League One. This is now estimated to be £4.3M and £645k with the new TV deal. So that alone is a £3.8M revenue hit, and would probably exceed any further loss in matchday/commercial revenue.

Breaking down 2013/14's revenue and assuming matchday revenue has dropped another 1/3 since then, I'd guesstimate our current "operating" revenue (i.e. excluding transfer fees) as £2.1M in matchday revenue, £4.3M from the PL solidarity payment, £1.7M from the FL broadcast revenue pool, ~£5M in commercial revenue (maybe £1M or so lower now...), and lets say another £300k in revenue from broadcast matches. So, £13.4M, give our take (probably take haha) a couple £M.

For League One, let's assume matchday revenue drops another 25%, the solidary payment drops to £645k, commercial revenue down 25%, FL distribution at £1.7M (I think this stays constant, but I'm not sure?) and 'extra' broadcast revenue at maybe £100k (just guessing, would probably depend on a cup 'run').

So with those spitballed numbers in mind, the Championship we're at £13.4M, League One maybe £7.8M or so? If Venky's **** off, perhaps matchday revenue would instead rise, but that'd probably only be worth another million or two.

edit: couldn't find an exact number, but googling suggests the FL distribution would drop too, so it'd be a bit lower than £7.8 in League One...

[tomphil]

My guess is Mears will be Marshalls replacemnet , Barnes will replace Emnes should he return to Swansea , Byrne and Hendrie will go back to parent clubs and won't be replaced

That's the way i see it from the bits doing the rounds of what Coyle has said. We are just desperate to plug gaps quickly and they are desperate to come back over here. All set up for another jobs for the boys from clown pants contact books.

Yes we need bodies and the outgoing wages would cover these two but it's just more crap on the books if they get full time contracts. We are bent over and greased up ready for the next agent shafting.

[Commondore]

Championship clubs (who are not getting parachute payments, so this includes us now) got a 'Premier League solidary payment' of £2.3M every year, which drops to £360k in League One. This is now estimated to be £4.3M and £645k with the new TV deal. So that alone is a £3.8M revenue hit, and would probably exceed any further loss in matchday/commercial revenue.

Breaking down 2013/14's revenue and assuming matchday revenue has dropped another 1/3 since then, I'd guesstimate our current "operating" revenue (i.e. excluding transfer fees) as £2.1M in matchday revenue, £4.3M from the PL solidarity payment, £1.7M from the FL broadcast revenue pool, ~£5M in commercial revenue (maybe £1M or so lower now...), and lets say another £300k in revenue from broadcast matches. So, £13.4M, give our take (probably take haha) a couple £M.

For League One, let's assume matchday revenue drops another 25%, the solidary payment drops to £645k, commercial revenue down 25%, FL distribution at £1.7M (I think this stays constant, but I'm not sure?) and 'extra' broadcast revenue at maybe £100k (just guessing, would probably depend on a cup 'run').

So with those spitballed numbers in mind, the Championship we're at £13.4M, League One maybe £7.8M or so? If Venky's **** off, perhaps matchday revenue would instead rise, but that'd probably only be worth another million or two.

edit: couldn't find an exact number, but googling suggests the FL distribution would drop too, so it'd be a bit lower than £7.8 in League One...

Not that I condone selling players as a calculated strategy to balance the books, but dropping down a division would also give us even less weight in transfer negotiations with other clubs.

My guess is Mears will be Marshalls replacemnet , Barnes will replace Emnes should he return to Swansea , Byrne and Hendrie will go back to parent clubs and won't be replaced

Tyrone Mears, who played for Burnley and Marseille? What's he up to these days?

[AJW]

Not that I condone selling players as a calculated strategy to balance the books, but dropping down a division would also give us even less weight in transfer negotiations with other clubs.

Tyrone Mears, who played for Burnley and Marseille? What's he up to these days?

MLS

[McClarky]

The idea of clearing out most of the summer's signings and replacing them with new loan or permanent deals is ideal for the Rovers model. It's all in favour of the agents and nothing to do with football. I don't think it really matters if we go down this year, next year or the the year after. The only certainty is that as long as Vs stay we will continue to fail and slip down the pecking order until there is nothing left to pick the scraps off. That's when "Vexit" will happen, leaving an unsurmountable heap of debt behind them.

[Lancaster Rover]

I doubt he's up to much these days but I did used to think Mears was quite handy

[JHRover]

There's a reason these players end up in the MLS in what should be the best years of their career and its the same reason Coyle ended up there after being binned at Bolton and Wigan.

Mears is very much a Coyle man though. Signed him at Burnley and at Bolton, so given half an opportunity he'll have him at Brockhall on a 2-3 year deal.

[tomphil]

Rudy's moved, Rhodes will and maybe Cairney as a few clubs sniffing around. Not sure of the add on situations but if there is on all 3 the trouser pockets of whoever will be bulging soon as well as Marshalls move. Hopefully it'll push them closer to the door if so.

Some interesting comments from Fulham fans on TC by the way. Wonder if he'll become a superstar there long after he's gone as well

[G Somerset Rover]

I thought generally they quite liked Cairney? Be interested to see their comments though to see how aligned they are with ours.

Re Rhodes, if he does go you'd imagine that Boro would still have to pay the £2 million to us should they stay up. Hopefully Balaji is not reading this...

[47er]

My guess is Mears will be Marshalls replacemnet , Barnes will replace Emnes should he return to Swansea , Byrne and Hendrie will go back to parent clubs and won't be replaced

Wow! Can we cope with that excitement?

[tomphil]

I thought generally they quite liked Cairney? Be interested to see their comments though to see how aligned they are with ours.

Re Rhodes, if he does go you'd imagine that Boro would still have to pay the £2 million to us should they stay up. Hopefully Balaji is not reading this...

I thought he was Mr main man down there but from what iv'e read it's similar to how a lot felt when he was here. Quality player but lazy and a poser rather than a team man, one or two even said he was a disruption in the dressing room. Doesn't seem that type but i do remember people nearer to the action saying he always seemed to ignore the bench shouting instructions at him.

Can't be doing too bad though if a few Prem clubs are looking at him.

[Dunnfc]

Is there any real financial issue in dropping to League One? Fans wise we've already lost a load, would we lose more than 2-3k more? I guess we'll miss out on some visiting clubs with a lot of fans...

Is there much difference in league position money etc?

The main reason I ask is I there isn't a major loss in income the best strategy for vexit (from their point of view) is to sell all the players.

The one significant counter argument I can see is a buyer would pay a lot more for a Championship club over a league one club.

4 millionish tv revenues before league placings.

We as fans shouldn't be accepting players like Mears or Barnes anywhere near this once great club.

[Mattyblue]

I see that Mears was recently let go from an MLS club? What could go wrong?

[donnermeat]

I see that Mears was recently let go from an MLS club? What could go wrong?

Has had severe injuries in his career. Draw up that 3 year deal!

[gumboots]

4 millionish tv revenues before league placings.

We as fans shouldn't be accepting players like Mears or Barnes anywhere near this once great club.

and how exactly do you suggest we stop it? Lots of things at Rovers are unacceptable but so far we haven't stopped any of them happening

[chaddyrovers]

From Alan Nixon

Blackburn holding out for £2m for Ben Marshall as Paul Lambert's Wolves prepare to pounce https://t.co/pXjLUgqL3S

[JHRover]

From Alan Nixon

Blackburn holding out for £2m for Ben Marshall as Paul Lambert's Wolves prepare to pounce https://t.co/pXjLUgqL3S

Like they were holding out for £9 million for Gestede only to sell him to Villa for £6 million once the penny dropped.

The deal is all but done and Rovers will get about £250k. Wolves will know how much money Marshall wants and will have agreed a wage with him. They will know Rovers will blink first even if it takes until the 30th January. Talk about £1 million or £2 million is complete nonsense aimed at convincing the supporters that the club has got a good deal and that money might be reinvested.

[joey_big_nose]

Championship clubs (who are not getting parachute payments, so this includes us now) got a 'Premier League solidary payment' of £2.3M every year, which drops to £360k in League One. This is now estimated to be £4.3M and £645k with the new TV deal. So that alone is a £3.8M revenue hit, and would probably exceed any further loss in matchday/commercial revenue.

Breaking down 2013/14's revenue and assuming matchday revenue has dropped another 1/3 since then, I'd guesstimate our current "operating" revenue (i.e. excluding transfer fees) as £2.1M in matchday revenue, £4.3M from the PL solidarity payment, £1.7M from the FL broadcast revenue pool, ~£5M in commercial revenue (maybe £1M or so lower now...), and lets say another £300k in revenue from broadcast matches. So, £13.4M, give our take (probably take haha) a couple £M.

For League One, let's assume matchday revenue drops another 25%, the solidary payment drops to £645k, commercial revenue down 25%, FL distribution at £1.7M (I think this stays constant, but I'm not sure?) and 'extra' broadcast revenue at maybe £100k (just guessing, would probably depend on a cup 'run').

So with those spitballed numbers in mind, the Championship we're at £13.4M, League One maybe £7.8M or so? If Venky's **** off, perhaps matchday revenue would instead rise, but that'd probably only be worth another million or two.

edit: couldn't find an exact number, but googling suggests the FL distribution would drop too, so it'd be a bit lower than £7.8 in League One...

Quality answer that, much appreciated!

[ABBEY]

From Alan Nixon

Blackburn holding out for £2m for Ben Marshall as Paul Lambert's Wolves prepare to pounce https://t.co/pXjLUgqL3S

Stop quoting the fat Scottish prick ...it's weird and not normal for a grown man to worship an old fat turd

[J*B]

Coyle is in the market for young Spanish right back currently playing in Spanish Segunda division. Noah Juan.

[arbitro]

From Alan Nixon

Blackburn holding out for £2m for Ben Marshall as Paul Lambert's Wolves prepare to pounce https://t.co/pXjLUgqL3S

£2m for a player who they can get for nothing in the summer? Their arrogance never ceases to surprise me.

[roverstdt]

2m for Marshall does seem a lot however if the deal is structured well he is worth every penny.

So far I am not too disappointed with the players linked. Browning from Everton i think would be a shrewd piece of business, Diagouraga would be some needed added steel in midfield we would need to offload Akpan, Guthrie though and bring in another creative midfielder hell I would even take a punt on Jonh Bostock who is having a great season at RC Lens as well and who has been linked to a few Ligue 1 teams. Abdoul Ba for me is a bit risky being half french I follow the French league and yes he is tall and physically imposing but he is prone to mistakes at his young age and I would go with someone more reliable.

[1arC]

2m for Marshall does seem a lot however if the deal is structured well he is worth every penny.

So far I am not too disappointed with the players linked. Browning from Everton i think would be a shrewd piece of business, Diagouraga would be some needed added steel in midfield we would need to offload Akpan, Guthrie though and bring in another creative midfielder hell I would even take a punt on Jonh Bostock who is having a great season at RC Lens as well and who has been linked to a few Ligue 1 teams. Abdoul Ba for me is a bit risky being half french I follow the French league and yes he is tall and physically imposing but he is prone to mistakes at his young age and I would go with someone more reliable.

I honestly can't see us signing anyone, irrespective of what we get for Marshall.

[Jimmy612]

Who's Paul Senior?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/2541508/blackburn-bring-in-paul-senior-as-new-technical-director-to-work-with-boss-owen-coyle-in-fight-for-survival/